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2022~2023年乌拉圭发展报告:改革符合预期,贸易开放成外交优先议题

文章摘要

改革是拉卡列政府努力推进的治理要务,尽管面临在野党制衡、执政联盟分歧等诸多挑战,以《紧急审议法》和社会保障改革为代表的改革议程总体达到了预期,在一定程度上反映出乌拉圭国内政治环境的稳定。与此同时,随着2024年大选的临近,乌拉圭政治力量格局呈现出新的变动迹象。经济层面,乌拉圭经济表现以及增长预期均领先地区平均水平。相比而言,通胀和债务问题是乌拉圭短期内的主要挑战,长期来看,乌拉圭仍是拉美地区经济社会环境最佳的国家之一。改革同样体现在乌拉圭的外交层面,促进贸易开放既成为乌拉圭开展国际合作(尤其是与大国之间的合作)的主线,也是乌拉圭与南方共同市场其他成员协调立场的主要分歧点。乌拉圭与中国的关系延续高效节奏,政治对话畅通,经贸合作紧密度进一步提高。

Abstract

Reform is definitely a priority that the Lacalle Administration is striving to promote. Despite many challenges,such as the pressure from opposition parties and differences in the ruling coalition,the reform agenda,represented by the LUC and social security reform,has generally met expectations,which reflects to some extent the stability of the domestic political environment in Uruguay. At the same time,as the 2024 General Elections approach,Uruguay’s political power system shows new signs of changes. At the economic level,Uruguay’s economic performance and growth expectations are both ahead of the regional average. In contrast,inflation and public debt are the main challenges in the short term. In the long term,Uruguay remains one of the countries with the best economic and social environment in Latin America. The reform is also reflected in Uruguay’s diplomatic level. Promoting trade openness has become the main guideline of Uruguay’s international cooperation,especially with major powers. It is also the main point of disagreement between Uruguay and other member countries of MERCOSUR in coordinating their positions. Uruguay’s relations with China have continued at an efficient pace,with smooth political dialogue and closer economic and trade cooperation.

作者简介
周志伟:周志伟,中国社会科学院拉丁美洲研究所研究员,主要研究方向为拉美国际关系,巴西、乌拉圭国别综合研究。