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2022~2023年阿根廷发展报告:经济复苏放缓,执政压力陡增

文章摘要

2022年,阿根廷的经济复苏进程放缓,减贫形势逆转,通货膨胀加剧,政府执政压力明显加大。政治上,执政联盟内部分歧加剧,激进派与温和派在执政理念、经济改革和债务谈判等方面分歧严重。贫困人口增加和通货膨胀上升给执政联盟在2023年总统大选中的竞争带来不确定性。经济上,经历2021年的高速经济增长后,2022年阿根廷经济复苏进程骤然放缓。财政赤字严重、货币大幅贬值、巨额外债和通货膨胀率持续攀升是阿根廷短期内难以克服的挑战,并将拉低2023年的经济增长预期。受经济复苏放缓和物价攀升的影响,阿根廷的减贫形势发生逆转,贫困率上升,极端贫困率略微下降。劳动力市场恢复活力,失业率继续下降,就业率升至2016年以来的最高水平,但就业不足现象仍比较突出。在对外关系方面,阿根廷延续平衡、多元和务实主义的外交政策,在维持同美国等西方国家传统友好关系的同时,努力加强与拉美左翼国家的联合与团结,重启同巴西的战略伙伴关系,共同推动地区一体化进程。在西半球之外,阿根廷加强了同中国的合作,推动双边关系迈上新台阶。

Abstract

In 2022,Argentina’s economic recovery moderates,poverty rises,inflation worsens rapidly and the ruling pressure increases significantly. Politically,divisions within the ruling Frente de Todos have intensified,with the radicals and moderates confronting serious difference over the governing philosophy,economic reforms and debt negotiations with IMF. The rising poverty and inflation pose great challenges to the Frente de Todos’ bidding for the 2023 presidential election. Economically,the recovery process has slowed abruptly after the high economic growth in 2021. Argentina still faces some insurmountable challenges in the near future,including high fiscal deficit,sharp depreciation of Argentine peso vs US dollar,over-burdened foreign debt and increasing consumer prices,which will lower Argentina’s growth expectations in 2023. Argentina’s poverty reduction reverses as a result of moderate recovery and rising prices,with the poverty rising and extreme poverty falling slightly. The labor market has recovered its dynamism,with unemployment continuing to fall and employment rising to its highest level since 2016,but under employment remains relatively prominent. In terms of foreign relations,Argentina continues its well-balanced,pluralistic and pragmatic diplomacy,maintaining traditional friendly relations with U.S.A. and other main Western countries while working to strengthen the unity and solidarity of left-wing countries of Latin America and the Caribbean,reactivating its strategic partnership with Brazil and jointly promoting the regional integration process. Outside the Western Hemisphere,Argentina has taken advantage of the 50th anniversary of its diplomatic relations with China to strengthen strategic cooperation and promote bilateral relations to a new higher level.

作者简介
郭存海:郭存海,法学博士,中国社会科学院拉丁美洲研究所研究员,社会文化研究室主任,阿根廷研究中心执行主任,主要研究方向为拉美社会和文化及阿根廷。