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混合选举制对日本政党体系的影响力研究

文章摘要

自迪维尔热命题问世以来,关于选举制度与政党体系互动关系的讨论此起彼伏,目前学界对多数决定制已基本达成共识。混合选举制是二战后新兴的选举制度,经过70多年的发展,目前全球185个选举制度相对完整独立的国家中,采用混合选举制的有32个。自1994年进行选举制度改革至今,日本已完成了9届混合制下的众议院大选,逐渐成为实行这一制度的典型国家。本文选择日本作为混合选举制研究对象,在量化分析的基础上,讨论混合选举制对政党体系的影响能力,不仅包括强度,还含有方向。本文采用相关分析与回归分析的量化研究方法,通过横向与纵向的比较,评价混合选举制对日本政党体系的影响力水平,以“假设-演绎”法,计算不同选区类型、议席分配方式、混合制联结方式的“有效政党折损率”和政党“偏差度贡献率”,确定其影响力的作用方向。获得相关结论后,基于选举政治学的视角考察自公联盟既有的合作成果,判断两党联盟的未来前景。

Abstract

Since the advent of the Duverger proposition,there have been numerous discussions on the interaction between the electoral system and the party system,and the academic community has now largely reached a consensus on the majority decision system. The Mixed Electoral System,an emerging electoral system after the Second World War,has emerged and evolved over the past seven decades. Among the 185 countries in the world that currently have relatively complete and independent electoral systems,32 have adopted Mixed Electoral System. Since the reform of the electoral system in 1994,Japan has so far completed nine general elections for the House of Representatives under the Mixed Electoral System and has gradually grown to become a typical country of this system. The article chooses Japan as the only study of the Mixed Electoral System country in the hope that it can fully discuss the ability of the Mixed Electoral System to influence the party system,not only in terms of intensity but also in terms of direction,based on a quantitative analysis. This paper will use quantitative research methods of correlation and regression analysis to evaluate the level of influence of the mixed electoral system on the Japanese political party system through a cross-sectional and longitudinal comparison. Using a hypothetical-deductive approach,the “effective party discount rate” and the “deviation contribution rate” of political parties are calculated for different types of constituencies,seat allocation methods and the Mixed Electoral System of linkage to determine the direction of this influence. Having obtained the relevant conclusions,this article also judges the future prospects of the two parties’ coalition based on the perspective of electoral politics by examining in detail the established cooperation achievements of the LDP-CGP Alliance.

作者简介
蔡亮:蔡亮,法学博士,上海国际问题研究院东北亚研究中心主任、研究员,主要研究方向为日本政治与外交。
李慎璁:李慎璁,山东大学政治学与公共管理学院国际政治专业博士研究生,主要研究方向为日本的选举制度与政党体系。