全球变局的加速演进以及中美关系不确定性因素增多,引发日本各界对国际秩序走向的持续关注和讨论。俄乌冲突爆发,为这场讨论增添了新变量,并将讨论带入一个新阶段。首先是对国际秩序的认知问题,日本政府以及官方智库学者普遍认为,美国主导的“自由国际秩序”是现行国际秩序,试图以这种话语体系构建起日本所主张的价值维度。其次,少数理性务实学者从建构主义出发,认为美国单极决策逻辑存在弊端,仅靠美国难以维护国际秩序,多极化趋势不可回避。当前,日本国内充斥着一股强烈的渲染东西方对抗的政治鼓噪,认为中俄从背后侵蚀弱化了“自由国际秩序”,并将这种认知在国家安全战略层面加以明确。同时,日本对俄乌冲突给国际秩序走向带来的影响做出研判,并着手从政治、经济、军事等方面提升引领塑造国际秩序的能力。
As global evolution accelerates and Sino-US relations’uncertainties increase,Japanese strategists have been continuously focusing on and discussing the international order’s transition. The outbreak of the Ukraine crisis has added a new variable to the international order’s transition,which brought Japanese strategists‘discussion into a new stage. On the one hand,most Japanese officials and think tanks believe that the United States remains dominant in the current Liberal International Order and hopes to strengthen its ideology and discourse system advocated by the current international. On the other hand,a few rational and pragmatic scholars,based on the theory of constructivism,believe that US unilateralism has drawbacks,and it is difficult for the US alone to maintain the current international order,which implies a new multi-polar system is unavoidable. At present,most Japanese strategists strongly exaggerate the confrontation between the East and the West,proclaiming China and Russia have eroded and weakened the liberal international order from behind and Japan needs to clarify its national security strategy. At the same time,Japan is also carefully studying the impact of the Ukraine crisis on the international order,intending to improve its political,economic,and military ability to reshape the international order.
Keywords: | Foreign StrategyEconomic SecurityJapan-US AllianceRussia-Ukraine ConflictPerception of International Order |