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2022年自民党内派系政治的变动及其对“安倍路线”影响

文章摘要

2012年安倍晋三再次上台执政后,其领导下的日本政府采取一系列有力的政策措施,明显改变了日本的国家道路。这些政策主张被外界称为“安倍路线”。安倍本人是这一路线形成过程中的灵魂人物和关键指导者,他利用自己强大的政治能量助推该路线落地生效。2022年7月,安倍遇刺身亡给日本政坛特别是执政的自民党造成巨大冲击,使得党内的政治力学格局和派系实力对比发生明显变化,“安倍路线”在一定程度上面临“人亡政息”的隐患。但是,受岸田首相的个人政治需求、自民党的整体意志和日本的战略安全认知三重因素的制约,在未来较长一段时间,日本仍将按照安倍晋三时代设定的路线继续发展。

Abstract

After Shinzo Abe came to power again in 2012,under his leadership,the Japanese government adopted a series of decisive measures that obviously changed Japan’s national path. These policy propositions can be summarized as the “Abe Doctrine.” Abe himself is the soul and critical guide in forming this line,and he used his solid political energy to push the implementation of this route. In July 2022,former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was assassinated,causing a strong and widespread impact on the political landscape in Japan,especially the internal structure of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party. After Abe’s death,there were significant changes in the political dynamics and factional strength within the Liberal Democratic Party,which created some uncertainty about the future of the “Abe Doctrine.” However,constrained by the personal political needs of Prime Minister Kishida,the overall will of the Liberal Democratic Party,and Japan’s strategic security awareness,Japan will continue to develop according to the route set by Shinzo Abe for a long time.

作者简介
孟明铭:孟明铭,历史学博士,中国社会科学院日本研究所政治研究室助理研究员,主要研究方向为日本政治。
孟明銘: