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内外震荡与战略进取:2022年日本形势回顾与展望

文章摘要

2022年,日本的内政外交面临多重因素冲击,新冠疫情的持续扩散、安倍遇刺身亡及日元快速贬值引发日本国内政治、经济、社会动荡,岸田内阁的支持率多次跌破“危险水域”;俄乌冲突的爆发严重破坏安倍执政时期推行的日俄政策,也将日俄关系推向崩溃边缘。在内外交困之际,岸田利用积极的穿梭外交来重新赢得日本选民的认可,一方面积极强化日美同盟关系,加快推进日美军事“一体化”进程;另一方面深化日本与欧洲、印度以及东南亚各国间的关系,推动日英、日德及日法关系朝着“同盟化”方向发展,拉拢北约积极介入亚太事务。岸田在外交上的积极进取不仅为日本赢得了较为有利的国际环境,也遏止了国内支持率单边下滑的趋势。同时,岸田利用动荡的国际形势及日趋恶化的周边地缘环境,重塑日本国民的安全认知、强化日本国民的安全意识,为“安保三文件”的顺利落地扫清了舆论障碍。“安保三文件”的出台是日本突破“和平宪法”束缚、谋求“正常国家化”的阶段性成果,防卫政策从坚持“专守防卫”向构建“反击能力”的转变不仅将严重冲击战后日本的和平主义道路,加速“和平宪法”的解体,还将动摇亚太地区安全秩序及中日关系发展的根基,具有深远的影响。2023年是《中日和平友好条约》签署45周年,中日两国应秉持条约精神,坚持用和平手段化解两国间的分歧,缓和两国日趋尖锐的结构性矛盾,推动中日关系重回正轨。

Abstract

In 2022,Japan’s domestic affairs and diplomacy faced the impact of multiple factors. The continuous spread of the COVID-19 epidemic,the assassination of Abe,and the rapid depreciation of the Japanese Yen triggered Japan’s domestic political,economic,and social turmoil. The support rate of the Kishida cabinet repeatedly dropped below “dangerous waters.” The outbreak of the Russia-Uzbekistan conflict seriously undermined the Japan-Russia policy implemented during the Abe administration and pushed Japan-Russia relations to the brink of collapse. At a time of domestic and foreign difficulties,Kishida used active shuttle diplomacy to regain the approval of Japanese voters. On the one hand,he actively strengthened the Japan-US alliance,accelerated the process of Japan-US military “integration”,and on the other hand,deepened Japan’s relationship with Europe,India,and Southeast Asia. The relationship between countries promoted the development of Japan-UK,Japan-Germany,and Japan-France relations in the direction of “alliance” and won over NATO to actively intervene in Asia-Pacific affairs. Kishida’s diplomatic aggressiveness not only won a more favorable international environment for Japan but also curbed the unilateral decline in domestic support. Meanwhile,Kishida took advantage of the turbulent international situation and the deteriorating surrounding geographical environment to reshape and strengthen the security awareness of the Japanese nationals and cleared the obstacles of public opinion for the smooth implementation of the “Three Security Policy Documents.” The release of the “Three Security Policy Documents” is a phased achievement of Japan breaking through the shackles of the post-war peace constitution and seeking a “normal country.” The transition of the defense policy from adhering to “exclusive defense” to building a “counterattack capability” will not only severely impact postwar Japan’s pacifist path but also accelerate the disintegration of the “Peace Constitution”,at the same time,it will also shake the foundation of the security order in the Asia-Pacific region and the development of China-Japan relations,which will have a far-reaching impact. 2022 is the 45th anniversary of the signing of the Sino-Japanese Treaty of Peace and Friendship. China and Japan should uphold the spirit of the treaty,insist on using peaceful means to resolve differences between the two countries,ease the increasingly acute structural conflicts between the two countries,and promote the return of China-Japan relations to on track.

作者简介
杨伯江:杨伯江,法学博士,中国社会科学院日本研究所所长、东海问题研究中心主任、中华日本学会常务副会长,主要研究方向为大国关系、亚太地区安全、日本问题。
朱清秀:
陈祥:陈祥,文学博士,中国社会科学院日本研究所副研究员,主要研究方向为日本问题、环境史和近代日本侵华史。
楊伯江:
陳祥: