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2022年东盟处理缅甸问题的举措与制约因素

文章摘要

为落实2021年东盟“五点共识”,2022年1月东盟轮值主席国柬埔寨首相洪森访问缅甸,随后一年间布拉索昆、康富等柬方外交人员也先后赴缅斡旋。“美国、俄罗斯等大国强化涉缅地缘博弈”,“东盟各国对待缅甸问题的意见存在分歧”,“缅军方与民盟在短期内政治互信困难”等,是当前可能也是今后一个时期,东盟处理缅甸问题面临的主要制约因素。

Abstract

In order to implement the “Five-Point Consensus” of ASEAN in 2021,Hun Sen,the Prime Minister of Cambodia,the rotating chairman of ASEAN,visited Myanmar in January 2022,and Cambodia diplomats such as Prak Sokhonn and Kung Phoak also went to Myanmar for mediation during this year successively. Major powers such as the United States and Russia have intensified their geopolitical games involving Myanmar. ASEAN member states have inconsistent opinions towards the Myanmar issue,and it is difficult to establish political mutual trust between the Myanmar military and the National League for Democracy in the short term. These are the main constraints faced by ASEAN in dealing with the Myanmar issue at present and potentially in the future.

作者简介
李枫:李枫,博士,广西民族大学东盟学院/中国-东盟区域国别研究院副教授、硕士生导师,研究方向为缅甸研究、华侨华人研究和国家安全研究。
杨大为:杨大为,广西民族大学东盟学院硕士研究生,研究方向为缅甸研究。