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白俄罗斯加入上海合作组织的动机、策略及影响

文章摘要

伴随国际大变局的持续深入以及上海合作组织的不断发展和壮大,白俄罗斯对上海合作组织的认知与定位发生了明显的变化。在白俄罗斯看来,上海合作组织已成为构建世界多极秩序的主要支撑之一,是白俄罗斯谋求欧亚地缘政治空间平等建构者地位的重要抓手。基于此,白俄罗斯在内外多重因素的共同推动下对上海合作组织采取了更为积极的政策,除表达了成为上合组织成员国的意愿,还提出了构建“集体东方”、推动“一体化机制间合作”、打造“差速一体化模式”等概念和倡议,以期凸显自身的地缘价值,并更快地在上海合作组织中重新确立自己的位置。与此同时,对上海合作组织而言,白俄罗斯若成为成员国可能会带来一定的发展机遇,但也潜藏着多重风险。因此,需要审慎对待白俄罗斯的加入申请,并尽可能地以此为契机加快推进上合组织的机制改革,推动设置更为灵活的互动合作制度,加强组织内部政治互信,从而促进上海合作组织的可持续发展。

Abstract

With the continuous deepening of international changes and the continuous development and growth of the SCO,the small Belarus country’s perception and positioning of the SCO have undergone apparent changes. From the perspective of Belarus,the SCO has become one of the main supports for constructing a multipolar world order and an important starting point for Belarus to seek its position as a builder of equality in the geopolitical space of Eurasia. Based on this,Belarus,driven by multiple internal and external factors,has adopted a more active policy towards the SCO and has put forward concepts and initiatives such as building a “collective East”,promoting “cooperation between integration mechanisms”,and creating a “differential integration model”,to highlight its geographical value and re-establishing itself in the SCO more quickly. At the same time,for the SCO,the accession of the small country of Belarus will bring specific development opportunities and multiple potential risks. Therefore,it is necessary to be cautious about the acquisition of Belarus,a small country outside the region,and do everything possible to take this as an opportunity to accelerate the reform of the organisation’s mechanism,promote the establishment of a more flexible system of interaction and cooperation,and strengthen political mutual trust within the organisation,to promote the sustainable development of the SCO.

作者简介
张艳璐:张艳璐,中国社会科学院俄罗斯东欧中亚研究所副研究员,历史学博士、政治学博士后。