随着国家经济的发展和居民收入的增加，水产品在居民饮食中的消费比例将不断上升。本文在分析水产品消费需求变化趋势及影响因素的基础上，采用1952～2009年的时间序列数据进行全国水产品消费需求与供给的预测分析，利用2003～2009年省际面板数据考虑时间和空间层面水产品消费需求的影响因素，分析我国水产品消费需求的时空分异特征，认为我国水产品消费需求主要受人均可支配收入、城市化水平、人口规模以及水产品价格水平的影响，预测未来5年我国水产品需求量会有小幅增长，2011～2015年约增加300万吨，且全国总体收入需求弹性处于0～1。
Along with national economic development and the increase of citizens’ income，the aquatic product is occupying for an increasingly large distribution in citizens’ food consumption structure.This essay is based on the analysis of aquatic products consumption demand tendency and the influence factors，which uses the time series data between 1952 and 2009 to do the prediction analysis in terms of aquatic products consumption supply and demand.The provincial panel data（2003-2009）are used as well in order to take consideration into the factors which is related to the aquatic products consumption demand in time and space lay.Through the analysis of the characteristics of aquatic products consumption demand according to the regions and time and space.It can be shown that the aquatic products consumption demand is mainly affected by disposal income per capita，urbanization level，population scale，and aquatic products price level.It is also predicted that the aquatic products demand amount will experience the slight rise in the five years.From 2011 to 2015，it will increase by 3 million tons and the national income-demand elasticity will range from 0 to 1.
