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2020年叙利亚政治形势与和解进程

文章摘要

2020年,叙利亚仍处于三方割据状态,政治形势进入“没有战争,没有和平”的僵持阶段。一方面,叙利亚北部伊德利卜的收复之战因土耳其强势干预而陷入僵局,南部德拉省的安全局势也在持续恶化,中部极端组织“伊斯兰国”的恐怖袭击有增无减。2020年,叙利亚的国内局势不容乐观。另一方面,叙利亚和解进程没有取得实质性突破,议会选举投票率的下降、阿斯塔纳进程的停滞以及宪法委员会谈判的无果而终,凸显国内外不同政治派别之间的利益分歧。2020年,在疫情和制裁双重打击下,叙利亚经济濒临崩溃,难民问题积重难返,公共卫生面临系统性风险,地缘政治对抗进一步加剧,未来政治和解面临严峻挑战。

Abstract

In 2020,the whole country was still in a state of tripartite separatism,and the political situation entered a stalemate stage of “no peace,no war”. The battle for the recovery of Idlib in northern Syria has been stalled due to strong Turkish intervention,while the security situation in the southern province of Daraa continued to deteriorate,ISIS attacks continued unabated in central Syria. In 2020,the domestic situation in Syria was still not optimistic. On the other hand,Syria’s reconciliation process has not made a substantial breakthrough,the decline of the turnout rate in parliamentary elections,the stagnation of the Astana process and the fruitless negotiation of the Constitutional Council have highlighted the differences of interests between different actors at home and abroad. In 2020,under the double blow of the epidemic and sanctions,Syria’s economy was on the verge of collapse,the refugee was hard to return,the public health was facing systemic risks,the geopolitical confrontation was further intensified. The future of the Syrian peace process is full of challenges.

作者简介
马帅:马帅,南开大学历史学博士,长江师范学院政治与历史学院讲师,西北大学叙利亚研究中心特约研究员,研究方向为中东近现代史、中东政治与国际关系、叙利亚问题。