2023年国际金融市场经历着一系列考验,全球央行加息进程持续,英、日、美、欧发达市场均不同程度地出现风险事件,新兴市场总体表现平稳,但面临风险偏好转向、资本市场重新定价和债务可持续性问题等挑战。全球长期国债收益率波动上行,美、英国债收益率倒挂;全球股市2023年出现明显反弹,且发达国家的股市表现显著优于发展中国家;美元指数触顶回调,主要货币兑美元呈现分化格局,人民币在年初小幅升值后呈波动下行。2024年国际金融市场走势仍取决于市场对经济“软着陆”的信心。如果核心通胀黏性较强,更高利率持续更长时间,国际金融风险仍将上行。风险点包括:国债市场、银行业机构或非银机构的风险再现,房地产市场和企业部门出现新的风险,货币政策不协调风险和地缘政治冲突风险。
In 2023,the international financial markets underwent a series of tests. Central banks around the world continued their tightening processes,and advanced markets such as the United Kingdom,Japan,the United States,and Europe experienced varying degrees of risk events. Emerging markets,on the other hand,demonstrated overall stability,but they faced challenges associated with shifting risk preferences,capital market repricing,and concerns about debt sustainability. Global long-term government bond yields exhibited upward volatility,with yield inversions observed in the United States and the United Kingdom. The global stock markets witnessed a significant rebound in 2023,and the performance of developed countries’ stock markets notably outperformed those of developing nations. The U.S. dollar index reached its peak and underwent a corrective pullback,leading to a differentiation in major currency pairs. The Chinese renminbi,after a modest appreciation early in this year,started to fluctuate and trend downward. The financial market trends in 2024 will still be contingent upon the market’s confidence in the prospect of an economic soft landing. If core inflation exhibits greater persistence,resulting in higher interest rates last for longer time,international financial risks may continue to rise. Potential risk factors include the resurgence of risks in the government bond market,banking or non-banking institutions,new risks emerging in the real estate market and corporate sectors,risks associated with uncoordinated monetary policies,and geopolitical conflicts.
Keywords: | International Financial RisksBond MarketForeign Exchange MarketStock MarketHigh Interest Rates |