受国内消费需求趋稳、政府国防开支增长、能源和粮食价格居于高位、石油出口流向调整较成功、财政货币政策调整较及时等因素的影响，俄罗斯经济显示出较强韧性，2022年下跌2.1%，2023年第一、第二季度分别增长-2.3%、3.6%，明显高于预期，但面临卢布贬值、通货膨胀率反弹、财政赤字上升等挑战。展望未来，俄罗斯经济的积极因素有经济韧性较强、消费者需求稳定、能源和粮食出口有望增长、政府开支和制造业投资增加，消极因素有国防开支挤出私人投资、高通货膨胀率、卢布汇率波动、美西方制裁限制技术和设备获取、劳动力短缺等。预计俄罗斯经济2023年将增长2.0%左右，2024年将增长1.5%左右。
Affected by factors such as stable domestic consumption demand，growth in government defense spending，high energy and food prices，relatively successful adjustments in oil export destinations，and timely fiscal and monetary policy adjustments，the Russian economy has shown strong resilience. In 2022，it fell by 2.1%，and in the first and second quarters of 2023，it grew by -2.3% and 3.6% respectively，significantly better than expectations. However，it faces challenges such as the depreciation of the ruble，a rebound in inflation rates，and an increase in fiscal deficits. As for the future of Russia’s economy，there are both positive factors such as strong economic resilience，stable consumer demand，potential growth in energy and food exports，and increases in government spending and manufacturing investment，but also many negative factors such as the crowding out of private investment by defense spending，high inflation rates，exchange rate fluctuations in the ruble，Western sanctions limiting access to technology and equipment，and labor shortages. We predict that the Russian economy will likely grow by around 2.0% in 2023 and by around 1.5% in 2024.
