2022~2023财年,印度经济保持复苏态势,实际GDP增速为7.2%,是增长最快的主要新兴经济体之一。2023年1~8月,印度通胀率同比下降1个百分点,但在过去的12个月中仍有6个月高于其央行设定的上限。9月印度失业率为7.1%,创2022年9月以来的新低。印度卢比的实际有效汇率明显回升,但印度卢比相对美元微弱贬值。印度股市延续趋势性上涨行情,Sensex指数9月15日升至67838.63,达到创历史纪录的高点。财政支出持续扩大,资本性支出大幅增长。中央政府债务规模逐步扩大,财政赤字率较高。印度货币政策收紧节奏明显放慢。影响印度经济前景的外部因素包括全球经济复苏进程、国际原油和食品等大宗商品价格波动、全球贸易和需求状况、地缘政治局势以及极端气候变化等,内部因素包括最终消费支出、政府资本支出及私人投资、服务业活跃度、通货膨胀变化等。综合考虑各方面因素,预计2023~2024财年印度实际GDP增长率为6.4%左右,2024~2025财年仍为6.4%左右。
In the fiscal year of 2022-2023,the Indian economy maintained a recovery trend,with a real GDP growth rate of 7.2%,making it one of the fastest growing emerging economies. In the first eight months of 2023,India’s inflation rate decreased by 1 percentage point year-on-year,but in the past 12 months,it has still exceeded the upper limit set by Indian central bank in 6 months. The unemployment rate in India in September was 7.1%,a record low since September 2022. The Indian Rupee’s real effective exchange rate has significantly rebounded,but has slightly depreciated relative to the US dollar. The Indian stock market continues its uptrend,with the Sensex index rising to 67838.63 on September 15th,reaching a record high. Fiscal expenditure continues to expand,with a significant increase in capital expenditure. The scale of central government debt is gradually expanding,and the fiscal deficit rate is relatively high. The pace of monetary policy tightening in India has significantly slowed down. The external factors that affect India’s economic prospects include global economic recovery,international commodity prices such as crude oil and food,global trade and demand,geopolitical situation,and climate change;The internal factors include final consumer spending,government capital expenditure and private investment,service industry activity,and change of inflationary pressure and so on. Taking all factors into account,this report expects India’s real GDP growth rate to be around 6.4% in FY2023-2024,and is expected to remain around 6.4% in FY2024-2025.
Keywords: | Economic RecoveryThe Stock Index Reaching a Record HighSlowing Down Pace of Interest Rate HikesFiscal Policy Expansion |