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2023~2024年亚太经济:触底回升

文章摘要

2022年在乌克兰危机、通胀高企和全球经济大幅放缓等多重冲击下亚太经济依然步入复苏轨道,2023年上半年走势虽然稍弱,但下半年明显回暖。随着全球需求疲软压力趋向温和,2023年亚太地区经济将触底回升,增长态势有望超过2022年,亚太地区17个国家的加权平均经济增速预计为4.5%,比2022年提高了0.5个百分点,比全球经济增速高1.5个百分点。同时,亚太地区通货膨胀率下行,但受食品价格影响呈现一定黏性;在强势美元下,亚太地区多数经济体货币对美元贬值;各国经常账户受大宗商品价格回落的影响出现分化,大宗商品出口国经常账户恶化,能源进口国经常账户有所改善。展望2024年,亚太经济复苏仍面临一定压力,但是外需疲软走势有望进一步缓解,强劲的内需以及区域贸易协定的落实都将有效推动经济增长,将在全球经济复苏进程中扮演更为积极的角色。

Abstract

The Asia-Pacific economy entered the recovery track in 2022 under multiple shocks such as the Ukraine crisis,high inflation and global economy slowdown;its recovery trend was slightly worse in the first half of 2023,and bottomed up significantly in the second half. The pressure of weak global demand tended to be moderate,the Asia-Pacific economy was expected to bottom out in 2023,and the overall growth momentum was stronger than the previous year. In 2023,the weighted average economic growth of 17 countries in the Asia-Pacific region was expected to be 4.5%,0.5 percentage points higher than previous year and 1.5 percentage points higher than global average. Inflation decreased in the Asia-Pacific region in 2022,while showing a certain stickiness due to the impact of food prices. Affected by strong US dollar,the currencies of most economies in the Asia-Pacific region had depreciated against the US dollar. Current accounts were diverged due to commodity prices declining,with commodity exporters deteriorating and commodity importers improving. Looking forward to 2024,the Asia-Pacific economic recovery still faces certain pressure,but the trend of weak external demand is expected to ease,strong internal demand,regional trade agreements will effectively drive the regional economy,and the Asia-Pacific economy will play a more active role in the global economic recovery process.

作者简介
杨盼盼:杨盼盼,中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所副研究员,国际金融研究室副主任,主要研究方向:国际金融、亚太经济。
倪淑慧:倪淑慧,中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所助理研究员,主要研究方向:国际金融、金融发展。