2022年之后，新冠疫情的影响逐步减小，日本经济开始稳定复苏。在2022年下半年到2023年上半年的四个季度t中，日本经济在三个季度里实现同比增速超过1.0%。在此期间，日本央行对货币政策进行了微调，日本10年期国债收益率虽有上行，但与美国10年期国债收益率相比仍有较大差距。2022年下半年日元持续贬值，虽然2022年第四季度日元兑美元汇率有所反弹，但2023年1月之后又重启跌势。2022年下半年至2023年上半年期间日本经历了明显的物价上涨，CPI同比增速一度达到4.0%以上。随着全球能源价格在2023年下半年显著反弹，日本物价同比增速的回落可能会面临一定阻力。预计2023年日本经济增速为1.5%左右，2024年为1.2%左右。
Since 2022，the impact of the COVID-19 on the Japanese economy gradually decreased，and the Japanese economy began to recover steadily. In the four quarters from the second half of 2022 to the first half of 2023，the Japanese economy achieved year-on-year GDP growth of more than 1.0% in three quarters. During this period，the Bank of Japan has turned monetary policy slightly，and although the yield of Japanese 10-year government bonds has risen，there is still a large gap compared to the yield of US 10-year government bonds. The Yen continued to depreciate in the second half of 2022，rebounding against the US dollar in the fourth quarter of 2022，but resuming its decline after January 2023. Japan experienced significant price increases between the second half of 2022 and the first half of 2023，with CPI reaching more than 4.0% year-on-year. As global energy prices rebound significantly in the second half of 2023，the pullback in Japan’s year-on-year CPI may face some resistance. Japan’s economic growth is expected to be around 1.5% in 2023 and 1.2% in 2024.
| Keywords： | JapanInflationExchange Rate |
