In the first half of 2022，the U.S. economy fell into a “technical” recession. Under the pressure of high inflation，the Federal Reserve was forced to continue to raise interest rates，sparking widespread fears of an impending recession in the U.S. economy. However，since the second half of 2022，the U.S. economy has returned to above-trend growth，and the economy has shown greater resilience than expected. At the same time，the U.S. unemployment rate remained low while headline inflation moved down significantly，opening up room for a “soft landing”. Currently，consumption in the United States remains strong，corporate investment is tentatively stabilising，and industrial policy is beginning to work，suggesting that the U.S. internal growth momentum remains robust. The banking turmoil in the US triggered by the failure of Silicon Valley Bank in March 2023 was temporarily calmed by the Federal Reserve’s timely response，suggesting that the US financial system is both risky and resilient. Considering that the U.S. federal funds rate has been at a “sufficiently restrictive” level，the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hiking cycle will soon come to an end，but core inflation has shown strong stickiness，which makes it possible for the Federal Reserve to maintain a tight monetary policy for a longer period of time. During this period，the U.S. economic fundamentals and the financial system will continue to be under pressure，the probability that economic growth will fall back below trend levels，and potential risks may be exposed one after another，and ultimately whether to achieve a “soft landing” remains to be seen.