本报告利用粤港澳大湾区2000~2016年商品CPI指数通过一价定律的相对价格法测度了湾区的市场一体化水平;并基于粤港澳大湾区11个城市2000~2016年的相关数据建立了面板模型分析了市场一体化对经济增长的影响。实证研究结果表明:第一,自进入21世纪以来,粤港澳大湾区产品市场一体化程度整体上不断提高且趋于整合,但香港、澳门与其他9市的同期差异相较于其他城市相对较大;第二,市场一体化对粤港澳大湾区经济增长具有非线性的倒U形关系,目前粤港澳大湾区大部分城市尚未越过拐点58.44,即市场一体化对经济增长的作用尚未发生方向性的转变,目前以积极作用为主;第三,市场一体化对经济增长的促进作用受大湾区城市经济发展水平的影响,而经济发展水平对经济增长的影响呈现U形关系,且目前湾区内城市都已位于拐点的右侧,即随着大湾区城市经济发展水平的不断提高,经济增长水平进一步提升。
This report uses the commodity CPI index of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area from 2000 to 2016 to measure the level of market integration in the Bay Area through the relative price method of the law of one price,and establishes a panel model to analyze the impact of market integration on economic growth based on the relevant data of 11 cities in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area from 2000 to 2016. The empirical results show that:firstly,since the 21st century,the degree Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area product market integration has been continuously improving and tending to be integrated,but the differences between Hong Kong and Macao and other nine cities in the same period are relatively large. Secondly,the effect of market integration on the economic growth of the Bay Area of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area presents an inverted U-shaped structure. Most of Cities which are in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area have not yet crossed the turning point of 58.44. The role of market integration in economic growth has not changed in a directional way,and at present the positive role is the main one. Thirdly,the promotion of economic growth by the integration is affected by the urban economic development in the Bay Area,while the level of economic development presents an inverted U-shaped structure with economic growth,and the cities in the Bay Area are now on the right of the turning point. On the other hand,with the continuous improvement of urban economic development level in the Greater Bay Area,the level of economic growth has been further magnified.