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广东外经贸形势分析报告(2018~2019)

文章摘要

在逆全球化趋势和中美贸易摩擦加剧、国内外宏观环境复杂多变的大背景下,2018年广东进出口贸易继续保持增长态势,但波动较大。以人民币计值,2018年广东货物贸易总额为7.16万亿元,比2017年增长5.1%,进出口总额超过7万亿元,创历史新高。其中,商品出口额为4.27万亿元,比上年增长1.2%;商品进口额为2.89万亿元,比上年增长11.3%。以美元计值,2018年进出口总额为10847.1亿美元,略低于2013年的历史峰值,其中出口略高于2014年的历史高点。“一般贸易+民营企业”的外贸发展模式进一步凸显;对主要贸易伙伴的进出口贸易额均呈增长态势,对美国出口增长1.1%、进口增长1.7%。2019年,世界经济面临增速下行的风险,全球总需求不振成为抑制全球贸易增长的主要因素,贸易保护主义仍然对全球贸易稳定增长构成威胁。本报告认为,2019年广东的货物出口贸易会继续承压,呈下行趋势,以人民币计值的增速在-5%左右;不确定因素仍然很多,贸易波动继续扩大。

Abstract

Facing the trend of anti-globalization,the intensification of Sino-US trade friction and the complex and various macro environment at home and abroad,Guangdong’s import and export trade still kept a growth in 2018,but with large fluctuation. In 2018,the total import and export value of goods in Guangdong Province was 7.16 trillion yuan with an increase of 5.1%. The total trade of goods exceeded 7 trillion yuan for the first time,hitting a historical high. Among them,merchandise exports were 4.27 trillion yuan,with an increase of 1.2%;merchandise imports were 2.89 trillion yuan,with an increase of 11.3%,and the imports increased faster than the exports. In dollar terms,the total import and export trade value in 2018 was 1,084.71 billion USD,slightly lower than the historical peak in 2013,of which export value was slightly higher than the peak in 2014. The foreign investment development pattern of “general trade + private enterprises” further highlighted. Both imports and exports to major trading partners increased,with the growth in exports and imports to the US of 1.1% and 1.7%,respectively. In 2019,the world economy is facing the risk of a slowdown in growth. The sluggish global demand could restrain the growth in global trade. Besides,trade protectionism remains a threat to the steady growth of global trade as before. The report argues that Guangdong’s export of goods will continue to be under pressure and the trend will go down in 2019. The growth rate is predicted about -5% in RMB terms. In addition,there are still many uncertain factors and trade fluctuations continue to expand.

作者简介
肖鹞飞:肖鹞飞,广东外语外贸大学金融学院教授、广东外语外贸大学南国商学院空港经济协同创新研究中心研究员,主要研究领域为国际金融、国际贸易、世界经济。
廖永菲:廖永菲,广东外语外贸大学金融学院硕士研究生。