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热词推荐: 能源基础设施

中国固定资产投资形势分析与展望(2023)

文章摘要

2022年,面对国内外超预期因素冲击导致的消费收缩、外需放缓等压力,我国及时加大宏观调控力度,充分发挥投资的关键性作用,全国固定资产投资实现了5.1%的增速。2021年固定资产投资对经济增长贡献率达到50.1%,提高了1.5个百分点。其中,基础设施建设投资增速强劲,制造业投资加快,房地产开发投资同比回落。随着疫情政策优化,在财政加力提效、金融精准有力、市场预期好转等积极因素加持下,2023年第一季度,固定资产投资强劲恢复,推动经济好转的关键性作用继续释放。建议重点关注民间投资意愿偏弱、投资增长分化程度加剧、低效无效投资项目盲目上马和房地产持续性恢复问题,继续发挥和释放投资在稳经济方面的关键性作用,以有效投资助力经济平稳回升和持续健康发展。

Abstract

In 2022,in the face of pressures such as consumption contraction and external demand slowdown caused by the impact of unexpected factors at home and abroad,China will increase macro-control efforts in a timely manner and give full play to the key role of investment,achieving a growth rate of 5.1% throughout the year. The contribution rate of fixed asset investment to economic growth reached 50.1%,and the contribution rate was 1.5 percentage points. Among them,the growth rate of infrastructure was strong,the investment in manufacturing industry accelerated,and the investment in real estate development fell year-on-year. With the optimization of the epidemic policy,under the support of positive factors such as increasing fiscal efficiency and improving financial efficiency,precise and powerful finance,and improving market expectations,in the first quarter of 2023,fixed asset investment will recover strongly,and the key role in promoting economic improvement will continue to be released. It is recommended to focus on weak private investment willingness,intensified differentiation of investment growth,blindly launching inefficient and ineffective investment projects,and continuous recovery of real estate,continue to play and release the key role of investment in stabilizing the economy,and use effective investment to help the economy recover steadily and sustainable development.

作者简介
刘玉红:刘玉红,国家信息中心经济预测部副研究员,主要研究方向为产业经济、计量经济模型。