俄乌冲突的持续使大国关系与全球治理面临更多不确定性，冲突溢出效应对国际金融体系、能源安全、粮食安全构成巨大冲击。当前形势下，俄乌通过和谈解决冲突的时机仍不成熟，解决信任危机是达成和平方案的最重要前提。即使冲突得到和平解决，俄乌两国间的民族对抗与文化对立也很难就此消解。展望未来，美俄两国政治权力结构的变化与未来欧洲的政治经济形势是决定俄乌冲突走向的最主要因素，双方军事投入的可持续性将是决定冲突时长的关键因素，未来可能发生的政权变更与黑天鹅事件是打破低烈度冲突的主要变量，双方投入战争的资源对比一旦发生急剧变化，世界可能面临大战风险。
The continuation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022 will bring more uncertainty to major country relations and global governance，and the conflict spillover effect will have a huge impact on the international financial system，energy security and food security. Under the current situation，the timing for Russia Ukraine to resolve the conflict through peace talks is still not ripe，and resolving the trust crisis is the most important prerequisite for reaching a peace solution. Even if the conflict is peacefully resolved，the ethnic confrontation and cultural opposition between Russia and Ukraine will be difficult to resolve. Looking forward to the future，the domestic political power structure of the United States and Russia and the future political and economic situation in Europe are the most important factors that determine the direction of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The sustainability of the military investment of both sides will be the key factor that determines the duration of the conflict. The possible future regime change and the Black Swan Events are the main variables to break the low intensity conflict. Once the resource comparison between the two sides invested in the war changes sharply，the world may face the risk of war.
