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世界钢铁贸易与低碳发展报告(2012~2019)

文章摘要

钢铁是重要的工程及建筑材料,在经济发展和社会进步中具有举足轻重的地位。过去几十年间,世界钢铁贸易发展迅速,其中一些国家和地区成为主要的钢铁生产和出口地,如中国、日本、韩国和欧盟等。然而,近年来世界钢铁贸易格局也在不断调整。除贸易争端和保护主义政策的影响外,环保和气候变化问题也给世界钢铁贸易带来了新的考验,促使钢铁生产和贸易模式朝着更加环保和低碳的方向发展。本报告首先对全球钢铁进出口贸易现状进行分析,然后分析代表性国家钢铁贸易发展规律和特点,最后系统分析全球钢铁贸易低碳发展趋势。研究发现,全球钢铁贸易额在2016年和2020年出现明显下降,2016年主要是受贸易保护主义政策的影响,2020年主要受新冠疫情影响。世界范围内不同地区的国家钢铁贸易结构有差别。一部分国家和地区依靠其资源优势在国际市场上具有竞争力,另一部分国家和地区则依靠其强大的科技力量在钢铁产品的生产上具有技术优势。本报告基于2012~2019年30个国家数据的实证分析,结果表明,单位粗钢碳排放强度上升会抑制钢铁出口贸易发展,电炉炼钢比重增加将有利于钢铁出口贸易的发展。

Abstract

Iron and steel are an important engineering and construction material that hold a significant position in economic development and social progress. Over the past few decades,the global trade of this industry has experienced rapid growth,with some countries emerging as major producers and exporters,such as China,Japan,South Korea,and the European Union. However,in recent years,the trade landscape has been constantly adjusting due to trade disputes and protectionist policies among nations,posing challenges and pressures on the industry. Additionally,environmental protection and climate change issues have presented new tests for the trade,prompting the industry to evolve towards more environmentally friendly and low-carbon production and trade practices. This report begins by analyzing the current status of global iron and steel trade in import and export. Then we examine the development patterns and characteristics of the trade in representative countries. Finally,a comprehensive analysis of the low-carbon development trends is provided. It is found that the global trade value of iron and steel declined significantly in 2016 and 2020,which was mainly affected by trade protectionism in 2016 and COVID-19 in 2020. The trade structure of countries in different regions of the world is different. Some countries are competitive in the international market due to their resource advantages,while other countries rely on their strong scientific and technological capabilities to have advantages in the production of iron and steel products. Based on the data of 30 countries from 2012 to 2019,our empirical results reveal that the increase of carbon emission intensity per unit of crude steel will inhibit the development of steel export trade,while the increase of the proportion of electric furnace steelmaking will be conducive to the development of steel export trade.

作者简介
邵燕敏:邵燕敏,博士,北京科技大学经济管理学院副教授,研究方向为绿色技术创新、效率评价方法与应用。
杨逸文:杨逸文,北京科技大学经济管理学院硕士研究生,研究方向为国际贸易。