钢铁产业是国民经济的重要组成部分，其发展程度是衡量国家或地区工业化水平的重要指标，具有产业链长、影响面广、累积效应明显等特征。早期经济学家通常采用钢铁产量或人均钢铁产量来评价一个国家或地区的钢铁产业发展水平。然而，单一指标的产业发展评价难以体现产量背后的科技水平、资源消耗、政策支持等因素，尤其是在世界范围内钢铁产能普遍过剩和碳排放政策收紧的时代背景下，产量不再是衡量国家或地区钢铁产业发展水平的唯一标准。本报告基于产业经济学的相关理论，从发展基础、发展环境和发展能力3个方面提出一套包含3个一级指标、9个二级指标和22个三级指标的钢铁产业发展指数评价指标体系，并采用主客观相结合的方法对指标进行赋权，最后采集指标数据，对2012～2021年中国钢铁产业发展指数进行评价。评价结果表明，中国钢铁产业发展基础稳定，在发展能力显著提升的推动下，整体产业发展态势良好。但是，在钢铁产业去产能和“双碳”战略目标下，以及复杂的国内外经济形势下，中国钢铁产业发展环境面临较大的不确定性和挑战。
The steel industry plays a vital role in a nation’s industrialization and economic development. However，relying solely on crude steel production to measure industry growth is insufficient given technological changes，policy shifts，and environmental pressures. This study proposes a comprehensive indicator framework to evaluate the development level of a region or nation’s steel industry. Grounded in industrial economics theories，the index comprises 3 primary，9 secondary，and 22 tertiary metrics spanning foundations，environment，and capabilities. An integrated subjective-objective weighting approach assigns indicator weights. The index is applied to assess China’s steel industry from 2012-2021. Results reveal steady foundations and an overall positive trend driven by capability improvements. Nevertheless，meeting de-capacity and decarbonization targets amid complex domestic and global economic conditions poses considerable uncertainties and challenges for China’s steel industry development environment. Further research could entail gathering stakeholder perspectives to refine indicator selection and weights. The proposed framework enables nuanced benchmarking of steel industry growth in the context of multifaceted modern challenges.
