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“十四五”时期中国天然气市场发展趋势及企业发展建议

文章摘要

“十四五”时期,中国天然气市场将面临巨大变革。在市场化改革大背景下,“十四五”是建立全国统一大市场的重要五年。在国际地缘政治冲突加剧的情况下,“十四五”前期,天然气仍以安全保供为前提。“十四五”中期,中国天然气期货上线,将助力天然气金融市场的发展,同时推动天然气价格发现。“十四五”后期,待国际天然气价格合理化后,中国天然气市场仍将为“双碳”目标的实现贡献力量,需求恢复快速增长。随着国家管网集团基础设施的进一步开放,上游资源将进一步多元化,价格市场化程度将进一步提高。企业将面临政策和市场环境的双重变化,天然气产业链也将进一步重整。“十四五”时期,我国将形成“气气竞争”的市场格局,国内外企业在复杂多变的外部环境下,需要尽快调整发展战略和商务策略,以应对天然气市场的巨变,实现企业利益的最大化。

Abstract

China’s natural gas industry is set to undergo major transformations during the 14th Five-Year Plan period,a period of paramount importance for the creation of a unified national market in the context of market-oriented reform. In the face of international geopolitical volatility,during the early phase of the 14th Five-Year Plan period,China’s natural gas industry will continue to prioritize the safe supply of natural gas. Once international gas prices stabilize in the later phase of the 14th Five-Year Plan period,China’s natural gas market will continue to contribute to the achievement of the dual-carbon target and demand will resume its rapid growth. China’s natural gas futures was launched during the metaphase of the 14th Five-Year Plan period,which will bolster the development of the natural gas financial market and facilitate the determination of natural gas prices. The opening of PipeChina’s infrastructure for third party access will lead to greater diversification of upstream resources and increased marketization of prices. Enterprises in the natural gas industry will be confronted with dual changes in both policy and market conditions,resulting in a restructuring of the industry chain. During the 14th Five-Year Plan period,China will create a market environment of competition in the natural gas sector. With the evolving international situation,both domestic and foreign companies should take swift action to adjust their strategic and operational plans to keep up with the dramatic changes in the natural gas market and maximize their returns.

作者简介
黄庆:黄庆,上海清燃商务咨询有限公司兼山东气库电子信息科技有限公司董事长、首席信息官,具有15年以上燃气市场信息、数据和咨询经验。
丁大鹏:丁大鹏,中国石油化工股份有限公司天然气分公司销售管理部高级主管兼中石化(北京)清洁能源有限公司副总经理。