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热词推荐: 能源基础设施

多重冲击下的全球能源局势与中国能源发展

文章摘要

2022年以来,在俄乌冲突、新冠疫情和美联储等众多央行加息的共同作用下,国际市场需求下跌、投资不足、欧洲能源供给短缺,全球经济衰退风险不断上升,使得国际能源市场发生了格局性的深刻转变。化石能源方面,煤炭、天然气价格大幅上涨,国际石油市场呈现分裂态势。新能源与电力方面,可再生能源发电创纪录增长,所占比重不断提升;电力需求增长回归平稳;电池消费大幅增长,电极材料价格屡创新高。展望2023年,在变局已成定局、全球经济不确定性风险增加的趋势下,这一格局可能会延续并进一步发展。化石能源方面,全球石油市场将持续波动,天然气供给短缺和煤炭需求旺盛将使相关能源品种价格维持高位,但低迷的全球经济和加息潮仍然是能源大宗商品的利空威胁。新能源与电力方面,各国出于碳中和、能源安全、寻找新的经济增长点等目的将进一步推动能源格局向可再生能源和电池方向发展,预计相关市场将在回归常态后保持快速增长和高位运行。

Abstract

Since 2022,under the joint effect of the Russia-Ukraine conflict,the COVID-19,and the Federal Reserve and other central banks’ interest rate hikes,the international market demand has declined,investment is insufficient,European energy supply is short,and the risk of global economic recession is rising,which has led to a profound change in the pattern of the international energy market. In terms of fossil energy,the prices of coal and natural gas have risen significantly,and the international oil market is split. In terms of new energy and electricity,renewable energy generation has achieved record growth and its proportion is constantly increasing;The growth of electricity demand has returned to a stable state. Battery consumption has increased significantly,and electrode material prices have repeatedly reached new highs. Looking ahead to 2023,with changes becoming a foregone conclusion and increasing global economic uncertainty risks,this pattern may continue and further develop:in terms of fossil energy,the global oil market will continue to fluctuate,natural gas supply shortages and strong coal demand will maintain high prices of related energy varieties. But the sluggish global economy and interest rate hikes are potential bearish factors for the energy commodity market. In terms of new energy and power,countries will further promote the development of energy pattern towards renewable energy and batteries for the purpose of carbon neutrality,energy security,and seeking new economic growth points. It is expected that Relevant market will maintain rapid growth and high level operation after returning to normal.

作者简介
王炜:王炜,博士,中国社会科学院大学科研处处长,中国社会科学院大学(研究生院)国际能源安全研究中心秘书长,主要研究方向为外国问题。
黄晓勇:黄晓勇,教授,博士生导师,中国社会科学院大学(研究生院)国际能源安全研究中心主任,主要研究方向为世界经济和国际能源安全问题。