本文基于能源需求模型（AIM/Enduse）分析了日本实现碳中和的进程及其结果，并且提出日本经验对中国的启示与建议。2013年日本实现碳达峰后，继续采取严控措施，确保碳排放逐年稳定下降。2020年日本正式宣布在2050年实现碳中和目标。此后，日本相继出台了“脱碳先行区”，“零碳活动30”等政策，倡导降低需求端的碳排放量，同时，通过《2050年碳中和绿色成长战略》进一步明确了重点发展海上风电、氢能以及氨燃料等清洁能源的供给侧改革方案。本文以日本供需两方面、全方位的措施为依据，结合模型演算结果，初步判断：在没有不可抗拒外力冲击的情况下，日本能够如期实现碳中和目标。基于对日本实现“双碳”目标的实践与路径的分析，本文认为，中国应借鉴日本经验，完善“双碳”法制、提高能效、构筑低碳社会，发展氢能等新能源产业，同时还应加强中日两国在“双碳”领域的合作，着眼未来，立足现实，循序渐进，如期圆满实现“双碳”目标。
This paper analyzes the process of the carbon neutrality and its results based on the energy demand model （AIM/Enduse），and proposes inspirations and suggestions for China based on Japan’s experience. After achieving the emission peak in 2013，Japan continued to take strict control measures to ensure a steady decline in carbon emissions year by year，and in 2020，Japan officially announced its goal of achieving carbon neutrality by 2050. Since then，policies such as the “Decarbonization Advance Zone” and “Zero Carbon Action 30” have been introduced to advocate the reduction of carbon emissions on the demand side，and at the same time，the “2050 Carbon Neutral Green Growth Strategy” further specifies the supply-side reform program focusing on the development of clean energy such as offshore wind power，hydrogen and ammonia fuel. Based on Japan’s supply and demand-side measures and model results，this paper makes a preliminary judgment that Japan can achieve the carbon neutrality target on schedule in the absence of irresistible external shocks. Drawing upon an analysis of Japan’s strategies and approaches in achieving the emission peak and carbon neutrality objective，this report posits that China ought to draw upon the experiences of Japan and bolster the regulatory framework to attain the emission peak and carbon neutrality targets，augment energy efficiency，establish a low-carbon society，and foster emerging industries of new energies，such as hydrogen energy. Furthermore，China must reinforce its cooperation with Japan in the emission peak and carbon neutrality domain，envision future possibilities，stay grounded in the present reality，advance incrementally，and achieve the emission peak and carbon neutrality goal in a timely and effective manner.
