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南高加索国家独立以来发展历程、当前态势和未来前景

文章摘要

南高加索(简称南高)国家独立后迈入自主化发展进程。30年来,南高地区形势逐渐从混乱无序走向相对稳定。当前,南高地区形势正在发生重大变化,处于新旧秩序的转换之中。阿亚边界矛盾上升,俄罗斯、土耳其、伊朗等周边大国的竞合博弈加剧,格鲁吉亚深陷民主转型之困,导致地区形势日趋复杂化。未来南高局势将面临多重挑战,但总体可控仍是基本面。

Abstract

After the independence of South Caucasus,the country entered the process of independent development. Over the past three decades,the situation in South Caucasus region has gradually changed from chaos to relative stability. At present,the situation in South Caucasus area is undergoing major changes and is in the transformation of the old and new order. The conflict on the border between Azerbaijan and Asia has risen,the competition and cooperation game between Russia,Turkey,Iran and other neighboring countries has intensified,and Georgia is deeply trapped in the dilemma of democratic transformation,resulting in the gradually complicated regional situation. In the future,the situation in South Caucasus will face multiple challenges,but the overall controllability is still fundamental.

作者简介
邓浩:邓浩,中国国际问题研究院欧亚研究所研究员,中国上海合作组织研究中心秘书长。
康杰:康杰,中国国际问题研究院欧亚研究所副研究员。