2021年是阿富汗极不寻常的一年。美国及其盟友完成了从阿富汗的全部撤军，之后美国和西方扶持的阿富汗政府很快垮台，阿富汗塔利班最终赢得了阿富汗战争，并在阿富汗重新执政。阿富汗变局不仅掀开了阿富汗历史新的篇章，还将对与阿富汗相邻的其他中亚国家产生现实和深远的影响。阿富汗变局对中亚安全造成某些现实冲击，但其规模和范围有限，而且总体可控。阿富汗变局使阿富汗有望迎来结束长达40多年的战乱、实现由乱到治的转机。这是其他中亚国家独立以来首次面对的情况，与此前的阿富汗有着很大的不同。今后中亚的安全形势能否不断改善，不仅取决于阿富汗塔利班政权的所作所为，而且取决于中亚国家特别是与阿富汗接壤的中亚邻国与阿富汗塔利班政权的关系进展。
The year 2021 was a very unusual year for Afghanistan. The United States and its allies completed the complete withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan，and the former Afghan government supported by the United States and the West collapsed. The Afghan Taliban finally won the war and returned to power in Afghanistan. The Afghan Taliban finally won the war in Afghanistan and returned to power in Afghanistan. The change in Afghanistan has not only opened a new chapter in Afghanistan’s history，but also has a realistic and far-reaching impact on other Central Asian countries adjacent to Afghanistan. The change in Afghanistan has caused some practical impact on the security of Central Asia，but its scale and scope are limited and generally controllable. The changes in Afghanistan have made it possible for Afghanistan to end the 40 years war and from chaos to governance. This is the first situation faced by other Central Asian countries since their independence，which is very different from Afghanistan before. Whether the security situation in Central Asia can be continuously improved in the future depends not only on the Afghan Taliban，but also on whether other Central Asian countries，especially the Central Asian neighbors bordering Afghanistan，can go against the Afghan Taliban regime.
