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中亚五国30年:稳中求变 共谋发展

文章摘要

2021年,中亚五国以更加成熟稳定的姿态迎来独立的而立之年。2021年中亚各国均保持了政治稳定,一些国家的总统选举或议会选举总体平稳有序进行;在新冠疫情反复的背景下,中亚国家经济相较2020年仍实现了复苏和增长;阿富汗政局变化对中亚地区形势具有重要影响,其影响程度尚有待观察;中亚国家的社会安全和稳定与阿富汗问题外溢具有一定关联,新旧矛盾交织下,恐怖活动出现新动向,极端主义加大了渗透力度,但总体安全形势可控;中亚国家奉行多元、务实、平衡的外交政策,继续参与由大国主导的多边合作框架,地区国家间团结协作的意识和行动力进一步增强。

Abstract

In 2021,Central Asia will usher in its thirties with a more mature and stable attitude. The political heat of Central Asian countries doesn’t decrease in 2021,which can be described as an election year. The presidential or parliamentary elections of various countries was basically carried out smoothly and orderly. In the novel COVID-19 epidemic situation has not yet subsided and repeated shocks,the Central Asian economies compared to 2020 still achieved recovery growth. The upheaval in Afghanistan has an important impact on the situation in Central Asia,and its impact and development prospects remain to be seen. The social security and stability of Central Asian countries have a certain degree of correlation with the spillover of the Afghan problem. Under the interweaving of old and new contradictions,new trends and extreme ideas have emerged in terrorist activities,and the infiltration has been strengthened,but the overall situation is controllable. The diversified,pragmatic and balanced diplomacy pursued by Central Asian countries has been continuously enriched,and continue to participate in the new multilateral cooperation framework led by major countries. The sense of unity and cooperation and action among countries in the region were further strengthened.

作者简介
金哲:金哲,中国社会科学院俄罗斯东欧中亚研究所副所长。