《北约2022战略概念》文件的发布,标志着北约未来十年大战略方向的确定。北约对其战略环境、与欧盟的关系、战略关切区域进行了全新的阐述,展现了当前及未来北约战略转型的三大趋势:传统安全重回大战略视野、“印太转向”、巩固在欧洲防务领域的支配地位。在对华政策方面,应对“中国崛起”带来的“系统性挑战”,已被纳入北约未来战略规划,同时北约亦保留了对华建设性接触的政策空间。在美国不断推动中美战略竞争的大背景下,北约对华政策的变化增加了中国与北约之间特别是与欧洲国家的竞争性关系。北约介入亚太助推该地区出现“集团化对抗”的趋势,给中国周边安全和国家利益维护带来了不容忽视的风险。总体来看,未来中国与北约的关系将会呈现“有限竞争,亦敌亦友”的非结构性状态,多种因素会限制双方关系向着对抗方向发展。
The release of the “Strategic Concept 2022” marks the determination of NATO’s strategic direction for the next ten years. The document provides a new elaboration on NATO’s strategic environment,relationship with the EU,and important strategic areas for NATO. Three major trends are clearly presented in the document:the return of traditional security to the NATO’s grand strategic vision,the “toward to Indo-Pacific”,and the consolidation of the dominant position in the European security. Responding to the “systemic challenges” brought about by the “rise of China” has been included in NATO’s future strategic planning. At the same time,NATO also retains policy space for constructive engagement with China. In the future,the relationship between China and NATO will present an unstructured state of “limited competition,between friend and foe”. Various factors will limit the development of bilateral relations in the direction of confrontation.