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欧洲经济:在乌克兰危机冲击下艰难前行

文章摘要

2022年,俄乌冲突成为影响欧洲经济形势与经济政策走向的重要“新变量”。冲突打乱了欧洲经济自新冠疫情中复苏的节奏,导致欧洲陷入严重的能源危机,进而推升通胀率达到20世纪80年代以来的最高水平。能源危机与高通胀严重抑制了消费、投资、出口等经济活动,加之全球经济复苏乏力的影响,2022年欧盟以及欧洲主要国家的经济复苏势头较之2021年显著趋弱。2022年,欧央行收紧货币政策、连续数次加息引起国际社会广泛关注,同时欧盟及欧洲各国政府出台诸多民生救助措施在一定程度上拖累了其在新冠疫情后改善公共财政状况的节奏。此外,2022年,“下一代欧盟”复苏基金的落实以及欧盟推进绿色、数字“双转型”的新进展仍然值得关注。最后,本文还对2023年欧洲经济前景做了展望。

Abstract

In 2022,the Russia-Ukraine conflict became an important “new variable” affecting the European economic situation and economic policies. The conflict has disrupted the pace of European economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic,leading to a serious energy crisis in Europe,which has pushed up the inflation rate to the highest level since the 1980s. The energy crisis and high inflation have severely constrained economic activities such as consumption,investment,and exports. In addition,the impact of the sluggish global economic recovery has led to a significant weakening of the economic recovery momentum of the EU and the major European countries in 2022 compared to 2021. In 2022,the European Central Bank tightened monetary policy and raised interest rates several times in a row,which attracted wide international attention. At the same time,the EU and European countries introduced many relief measures for people’s livelihood,which to some extent slowed down the pace of improving public finance after the pandemic. In addition,in 2022,the implementation of the “Next Generation EU” recovery fund and the new progress of the EU in promoting green and digital “twin transitions” still deserve attention. Finally,this report also provides an outlook for the European economy in 2023.

作者简介
孙彦红:孙彦红,经济学博士,中国社会科学院欧洲研究所研究员、欧洲经济研究室主任,主要研究领域为欧洲经济、欧盟及其主要国家产业政策、意大利研究、中欧/中意经贸关系。
杨成玉:杨成玉,经济学博士,中国社会科学院欧洲研究所副研究员,主要研究领域为欧洲经济、中欧经贸关系及法国研究。
孙雅雯:孙雅雯,经济学博士,中国社会科学院欧洲研究所助理研究员,主要研究领域为欧洲绿色经济、中欧经贸关系。