微区域理论是新形势下区域研究发展的产物。费尔干纳盆地是“一带一路”建设中的关键节点,也是一个典型的微区域。在微区域研究视角下对费尔干纳盆地的安全风险进行分析,提出治理方案,不仅具有丰富微区域安全治理研究的理论意义,而且具有保障“一带一路”建设和为其他微区域安全治理提供借鉴的现实意义。当前该微区域安全风险复杂多样,主要包括边界争端、恐怖主义、政局动荡、跨境犯罪与族群冲突等。安全风险呈现联动态势,在域内层次表现为不同风险间的类型联动,在跨域层次则表现为内外安全风险的空间联动。在风险双重联动态势下,域内治理面临体系性和能力性困境,跨域治理面临观念性和行动性困境。为优化治理,在域内层次需要构建乌、塔、吉三国间和三国内部的治理机制,提升硬打击能力和软治理能力;在跨域层次需要改进安全治理理念,在共同利益基础上推进大国协调。中国在费尔干纳微区域安全治理中,既要积极防范和化解安全风险联动,又要努力消解其产生的社会经济根源。
The micro-regional theory is the product of regional research development under the new situation. The Fergana Valley is a key node in the construction of the BRI;it’s also a typical micro-region. Analyzing the security risks of the Fergana Valley from the perspective of micro-regional research and proposing a governance plan has not only the theoretical significance of enriching the research of micro-region and security governance,but also the practical significance of guaranteeing the construction of the BRI and serving as experience for safety governance of other micro-regions. Currently,the security risks in the Fergana micro-region are complex and diverse,mainly including border disputes,terrorism,political unrest,cross-border crimes,and ethnic conflicts. Security risks present a situation of linkage,which is manifested as a linkage of different types of risks at the intra-micro-regional level,also as a spatial linkage of internal and external risks at the cross-regional level. Under the dual linkage of the security risks,intra-micro-regional governance faces the dilemma of system and capability,and cross-regional governance faces the dilemma of conception and action. In order to optimize governance,at the intra-micro-regional level it is necessary to build a governance mechanism between and within the three countries concerned,and to enhance hard-strike capabilities and soft governance capabilities,and at the cross-regional level,it is necessary to improve the concept of security governance and promote coordination among major powers on the basis of common interests. In the Fergana micro-regional security governance,China must not only actively prevent and resolve the linkage of security risks,but also strive to eliminate its social and economic roots.