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2022年菲律宾总统大选分析

文章摘要

在2022年5月的菲律宾新一届总统大选中,前总统马科斯之子小马科斯在选前即居于各大民调榜首,最终以高票当选为下一届菲律宾总统,前总统杜特尔特的女儿莎拉则高票当选为菲律宾副总统。小马科斯当选的主要原因在于他得到了菲律宾主要政治家族、金融寡头、宗教组织以及美国的支持。谁当选菲律宾总统事关中菲关系的未来乃至南海地区的稳定。未来小马科斯的对外政策极有可能延续现任杜特尔特政府对华友好的政策。与此同时,新政府可能会选择维持乃至加强与美国的关系。

Abstract

In the 2022 Philippine presidential election,Marcos Jr.,the son of former President Marcos,leading the polls among the presidential candidates before the national election,was finally elected as the next Philippine president by a large margin. Sara Duterte,the daughter of President Duterte,also won the vice president election in a landslide. Marcos Jr. was elected largely because he had the backing of the country’s leading political families,financial oligarchs,religious organizations and the United States. The Philippines presidential election is crucial to the future of Sino-Philippine relations and the stability of the South China Sea. President Marcos Jr. is likely to continue President Duterte’s China-friendly policy,while the new administration may choose to maintain and even strengthen ties with its ally the United States.

作者简介
代帆:代帆,教授,暨南大学国际关系学院/华侨华人研究院副院长,菲律宾研究中心主任。
杨帆:杨帆,暨南大学国际关系学院/华侨华人研究院硕士研究生。