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热词推荐: 能源基础设施

2021~2022年菲律宾外交形势分析

文章摘要

2021年是杜特尔特政府执政的最后一个完整自然年,新冠疫情持续影响菲律宾,对其公共卫生系统以及经济增长均造成较大压力,政府对疫苗和经济领域国际援助的需求更加迫切。杜特尔特政府继续奉行独立自主的外交政策,在对华、对美关系中寻求平衡,有效回应了国内对疫苗和经济援助的需求。菲律宾和中国在疫情防控、基础设施建设方面的合作稳步推进,但在南海地区摩擦偶有发生,存在一定的不确定性。拜登政府上台后提出印太战略的新内涵,菲律宾与美国关系逐渐回温,军事、防疫与救灾合作日渐紧密。菲律宾和日本以建交65周年为契机,进一步深化在政治、文化、经济和安全领域的交往;菲律宾与越南、新加坡、澳大利亚和俄罗斯等多个周边国家继续深化了各领域合作。国际组织继续以人权、新闻自由为由攻击杜特尔特政府。总体而言,杜特尔特政府延续了一贯的独立自主外交政策,对外交往工作很好地服务了应对新冠疫情和促进经济恢复等主要施政目标。在杜特尔特和阿罗约等多方政治势力支持下胜选的小马科斯预计将延续杜特尔特政府的务实主义方针,保持独立自主的外交政策,在延续杜特尔特政府对华友好政策的同时保持良好的菲美关系。

Abstract

2021 is the last full calendar year of the Duterte administration. The Covid-19 epidemic continues to affect the Philippines,putting pressure on its public health system and economic growth,and the government’s need for international assistance in the vaccine and economic sectors has become more urgent. The Duterte administration continues to pursue an independent foreign policy,seeks a balance between its relations with China and the United States,and effectively responds to domestic needs for vaccines and economic assistance. Cooperation between the Philip-pines and China in epidemic prevention and control and infrastructure development has steadily advanced,but there is some uncertainty about occasional friction in the South China Sea. After the Biden administration came to power,the new connotation of the Indo-Pacific strategy was put forward. The relationship between the Philippines and the United States has gradually warmed up,and cooperation in military,epidemic prevention and disaster relief has become increasingly close. Taking the 65th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations as an opportunity,the Philippines and Japan have further deepened their exchanges in the fields of politics,culture,economy and security;the Philippines has continued to deepen cooperation in various fields with neighboring countries such as Vietnam,Singapore,Australia and Russia. International organizations continue to attack the Duterte administration on the grounds of human rights and press freedom. In general,the Duterte administration has continued its consistent foreign policy of independence and autonomy,and its foreign exchanges have well served its main policy goals such as responding to the Covid-19 outbreak and promoting economic recovery. Marcos Jr.,who won the election with the support of multiple political forces,including Duterte and Arroyo,is expected to continue the pragmatic approach of the Duterte administration,maintain an independent and autonomous foreign policy,and maintain good Philippine-U.S.relations while continuing the Duterte government’s friendly policy toward China.

作者简介
马宇晨:马宇晨,北京大学外国语学院博士后。
吴杰伟:吴杰伟,教授,博士生导师,北京大学外国语学院副院长。