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2021~2022年菲律宾宏观经济形势分析

文章摘要

随着菲律宾疫情管控的放松和疫苗接种覆盖率的提高,2021年菲律宾经济较上一年负增长后触底反弹,2022年上半年经济形势持续向好。2021年因猪肉产量下降,农业发展略有收缩。其他产业的发展为经济增长做出了重要贡献,其中,服务业是经济增长的主要动力。然而,恶劣天气及非洲猪瘟疫情所带来的供给压力导致食品价格上涨,通货膨胀持续上行。为恢复受疫情冲击的国内经济,杜特尔特政府继续实施积极的财政政策和由宽松转向收紧的货币政策,财政赤字占GDP的比例持续上升。在国内投资和消费的强劲支持下,2022年菲律宾经济获得持续复苏。未来经济的下行风险主要来自俄乌冲突所引发的全球系列事件如通货膨胀,而地缘政治紧张局势的加剧将抑制全球经济增长,进而对菲律宾的出口市场造成冲击。

Abstract

With the relaxation of epidemic control and the improvement of vaccination coverage in the Philippines,domestic consumers and businesses are more confident,and the Philippine economy will bottom out and rebound in 2021 after negative growth compared with last year. While total exports recovered over the year,the current account deficit was driven by increased domestic demand as a result of relaxed controls. Constrained by the decline in pork production,agricultural development has contracted slightly. In addition to agriculture,other industries contributed significantly to economic growth,with the service sector being the main driver of economic growth. Investment and household consumption became the main drivers of economic growth. Inflation continues to rise as food prices rise due to supply pressures caused by bad weather and the African Swine fever epidemic. To restore the economy hit by the epidemic,the Duterte administration continued to implement turing from loose to light monetary policy and proactive fiscal policy,with the fiscal deficit rising as a percentage of GDP. Driven by increased domestic investment and consumption,the Philippine economy gained key drivers for a sustained recovery in 2022. The main downside risks for the economy going forward come from global events stemming from the Russia-Ukraine Conflict,while an escalation and extension of geopolitical tensions will dampen global growth and hit the Philippines’ export markets.

作者简介
张志文:张志文,中山大学国际关系学院副院长,副教授,博士生导师。
吕奕骅:吕奕骅,中山大学国际关系学院博士研究生。
洪耀宇:洪耀宇,中山大学国际关系学院硕士研究生。