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2021年菲律宾政治形势:大选博弈

文章摘要

2021年菲律宾时政基本围绕疫情和大选两条主要线索展开。疫情反复引起的各种经济、社会效应,不仅成为总统大选各候选人用以权力博弈的话题,而且成为主流媒体政治舆论的热点。伴随总统大位竞争,菲律宾国内各政治家族势力的重新组合基本完成。在美国强势介入南海地区安全的大背景下,美菲军事安全关系迅速恢复,菲律宾国内亲美势力的政治、经济活动空间日趋广阔。大选之后,新一届菲律宾政府将不得不继续面对来自疫情的压力,以及亲美势力强势回潮对内政外交可能的影响。

Abstract

Current Philippine politics in 2021 basically revolves around two main threads:Covid-19 pandemic and the general election. The recurring economic and social effects of Covid-19 pandemic have not only become a topic of power play for the candidates in the presidential election,but also a hot topic of political opinion in the mainstream media. Along with the presidential election,the regrouping of political families in the Philippines was basically completed. Against the background of the strong US involvement in the security of the South China Sea,the US-Philippines military and security relations have recovered rapidly,and the political and economic activities of the pro-US forces in the Philippines have become increasingly broad. Regardless of the outcome of the 2022 election,the new Philippine government will have to continue to face the political pressure from Covid-19 pandemic and the possible excessive influence of pro-U.S.forces on foreign policy.

作者简介
鞠海龙:鞠海龙,教授,博士生导师,暨南大学国际关系学院/华侨华人研究院副院长。
徐梦盈:徐梦盈,暨南大学国际关系学院/华侨华人研究院研究助理。