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2022年乌克兰危机全面升级后俄罗斯对后苏联空间外交

文章摘要

2022年对于后苏联空间而言,是形势急剧恶化的一年。年初俄罗斯与乌克兰爆发了大规模军事冲突,乌克兰危机全面升级后俄乌两国断交,关系完全破裂。在乌克兰危机中,白俄罗斯与俄罗斯捆绑最深,虽然白俄罗斯没有直接参与冲突,但它立场坚定地支持俄罗斯,两国关系在危机中进一步深化。俄罗斯积极发展同中亚国家的友好关系,中亚国家在俄乌冲突中保持了中立态度,它们既没有公开支持俄罗斯,也没有加入对俄罗斯的制裁,同时这些国家向乌克兰提供了人道主义援助。随着俄乌冲突的涟漪外溢,外高加索地区不稳定性增加,纳卡冲突风波再起。俄罗斯高度关注纳卡地区事态发展,希望加大该地区通过谈判实现和平的可能性。摩尔多瓦受美西方影响较深,该国的对外政策表现出一定的摇摆性。俄高度关注摩尔多瓦的事态发展及外交表态,力求其成为后苏联空间可控的国家。俄罗斯发展与后苏联空间各国双边关系的同时,积极推动后苏联空间三大组织即独联体、集体安全条约组织、欧亚经济联盟重要多边框架内的合作,同时,继续谋求自身在后苏联空间的主导和核心作用。

Abstract

In 2022,the situation in the post-Soviet space experienced a sharp deterioration. After the escalation of the Ukraine crisis,Russia and Ukraine broke off diplomatic relations,and their relationship has completely moved to the opposite side. In terms of the Ukraine crisis,Belarus is most deeply tied to Russia. Even not directly involved in the conflict,it stands firmly behind Russia,and the relationship between the two countries has further deepened in the crisis. Central Asian countries maintain a neutral attitude. They neither openly support Russia nor join the sanctions against Russia. At the same time,these countries provide humanitarian assistance to Ukraine. Affected by the crisis,the instability in the Transcaucasia has increased,and the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict resurfaces. Russia pays close attention to the situation of the Nagorno-Karabakh region and hopes to achieved peace in the region through negotiations. Moldova is deeply influenced by the US and the West,and the country’s foreign policy shows a certain degree of swing. Russia pays close attention to the diplomatic statements of Moldova,and strives to make it controllable. While developing bilateral relations with countries in the post-Soviet space,Russia actively promotes multilateral cooperation within the frameworks of three major organizations in the post-Soviet space,the Commonwealth of Independent States,the Collective Security Treaty Organization,and the Eurasian Economic Union.

作者简介
刘丹:刘丹,中国社会科学院俄罗斯东欧中亚研究所外交室助理研究员。