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极限制裁对俄罗斯金融部门的影响及2022年俄罗斯金融业运行状况

文章摘要

2022年美西方以乌克兰危机升级为由对俄发动多轮经济制裁。本次大规模制裁是在全球经济增速放缓和持续高通胀背景下实施的。外部经济环境变化与欧盟对俄制裁“角色”调整相互叠加放大了制裁效果,对俄外汇市场、证券市场、信贷市场产生剧烈冲击。首先,制裁引发卢布汇率大幅波动,交易禁令也限制了俄商业银行参与国际清算与国际融资的能力。在此背景下,俄商业银行资产负债端的去外币化以及人民币在俄外汇交易与贸易结算中占比提升成为新亮点。其次,制裁引发非居民投资者从俄证券市场大规模撤资,俄股票和债券市场随即大幅震荡。股票市场中俄居民散户份额的快速上升填补了外资离场后的空缺。再次,俄央行迅速、大幅加息的反危机措施虽保障了金融系统流动性和居民卢布资产价值,但利率环境变化还是对存量和新增贷款产生冲击。为此,俄央行和相关政府部门推出一系列如“贷款假期”“利率调整缓冲器”“优惠贷款”等反危机政策,以缓解加息对经济的负面冲击。后续实践证明,上述政策组合避免了重点大型企业(创收大户)和中小微企业(就业大户)的大规模信贷紧缩。在依旧严峻的外部局势和国际能源价格潜在调整情况下,俄外汇、证券、信贷等领域仍将直面各种压力。

Abstract

In 2022,the US and the West launched nine rounds of economic sanctions against Russia on the grounds of escalation of Ukraine crisis. The large-scale sanctions were implemented against the background of slowing global economic growth and persistent high inflation. Changes in the external economic environment and the adjustment of the “role” of the EU’s sanctions against Russia together magnified the effect of the sanctions,which brought a severe impact on the Russian foreign exchange market,securities market,and credit market. Firstly,the sanctions have caused sharp fluctuations in the ruble exchange rate,and the transaction ban has also limited the ability of Russian commercial banks to participate in international settlement and international financing. In this context,the removal of foreign currencies from the assets and liabilities of Russian commercial banks and the increase in the proportion of RMB in Russia’s foreign exchange transactions and trade settlements have become new highlights. Secondly,the sanctions triggered a large-scale withdrawal of funds from the Russian stock market by non-resident investors,and the Russian stock and bond markets fluctuated sharply. The rapid increase in the share of Chinese and Russian retail investors in the stock market has filled the vacancy left by foreign capital. Thirdly,although the Russian central bank’s rapid and substantial anti-crisis measures such as interest rate hike have guaranteed the liquidity of the financial system and the value of residents’ ruble assets,changes in the interest rate environment still had an impact on stock and new loans. To this end,the Russian central bank and relevant government departments have launched a series of anti-crisis policies such as “loan holidays”,“interest rate adjustment buffers” and “concessional loans” to alleviate the negative impact of interest rate hikes on the economy. Subsequent practice has proved that the above policy combination has avoided a large-scale credit crunch for key large enterprises (big income generators) and small,medium and micro enterprises (big employment households). Faced with the still severe external situation and the potential adjustment of international energy prices,Russia’s foreign exchange,securities,credit and other fields still face various pressures.

作者简介
王晶:王晶,中国社会科学院俄罗斯东欧中亚研究所助理研究员。