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刚果(金)东部冲突再起的根源及前景

文章摘要

2022年,刚果(金)东部局势持续动荡。主要有两场冲突影响到刚果(金)东部局势,即伊图里省冲突和“M23运动”再度活跃。伊图里省冲突主要是两大部族之间争夺土地、资源和地方权力所引发,范围主要局限于伊图里省,未造成刚果(金)东部整体局势动荡,因而受关注程度较低。造成刚果(金)东部局势动荡的主要是“M23运动”沉寂多年之后再次发动武装袭击。本文认为,刚果(金)东部地区逐渐演变为大湖地区主要冲突各国避免直接对抗、开展代理人战争的战场,“M23运动”的再度活跃应放在非洲大湖地区冲突的背景中解读。“M23运动”的再度活跃主要是因为2021年11月乌干达与刚果(金)达成协议,在刚果(金)东部地区开展针对乌干达叛军民主同盟军的联合军事行动引起的连锁反应。刚果(金)东部地区冲突在某种程度上反映了大湖地区各国之间的矛盾和冲突,这些冲突国家在刚果(金)东部地区相互博弈。因此,只要大湖地区各主要冲突国家之间的矛盾不解决,刚果(金)东部地区冲突永远看不到尽头。

Abstract

The situations of Eastern region of D.R.Congo fell into turbulence. There are two conflicts producing an effect on the situations of Eastern D.R.Congo,which includes Ituri Conflict and “M23” rebellion. Ituri conflict is mainly caused by two ethnic groups,fighting for land,sources,and local power. The influence of Ituri conflict is limited in the Ituri province,and didn’t lead turbulence to the whole Eastern D.R.Congo,which got less attention than “M23” rebellion. The turbulence of Eastern D.R.Congo is mainly caused by the revitalization of “M23” rebels. The paper argues,as a result of Eastern D.R.Congo turning into the battlefield of proxy war of the Great Lakes conflict,the revitalization of “M23” should be explained in the context of the Great Lakes conflict. The revitalization of “M23” is the chain reaction caused by Uganda-D.R.Congo military cooperation against the Allied Democratic Forces(ADF)in November 2021.To some degree,the Eastern D.R.Congo conflict reflects the collision among the conflicting states of the Great Lakes region. Hence,without the solution of the conflict of the Great Lakes,the Eastern D.R.Congo conflict will not end in the short and medium term.

作者简介
袁武:袁武,中国社会科学院西亚非洲研究所副研究员,主要研究领域为非洲安全、非洲政治、中非关系等。