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尼日利亚:多重挑战下的新希望

文章摘要

2022年,尼日利亚政局总体稳定,局地安全问题严峻、复杂。在尼日利亚军方和多国联合部队的打击下,“博科圣地”“伊斯兰国西非省”的活动空间被大大压缩。南部奥约州天主教堂遇袭案表明,恐怖主义出现向南蔓延苗头。与此同时,武装匪徒的绑架活动呈井喷态势,阿卡铁路旅客列车劫持案震惊整个世界。2022年,尼日利亚多地发生近10年来最严重水灾,造成重大损失。布哈里政府仓促出台的新纸币政策引发严重现金荒,给经济活动和民众生活带来极大不便,在多地引发街头抗议。2023年大选前,各种安全问题和风险叠加上升,总统选举成为1999年以来竞争最为激烈的一次。从发展趋势看,未来尼日利亚新政府将面临严峻挑战。一方面,新政府面临如何缓和因大选进一步加深的民族与宗教矛盾,维护国家的统一和团结;另一方面,如何改善安全形势,应对高通胀、高失业率和贫困问题成为重中之重。

Abstract

In 2022,Nigeria’s political situation is generally stable,and the security issues are complex and severe in some areas. “Boko Haram” and the “Islamic State West Africa Province” have been heavily squeezed by the military and the Multinational Joint Task Force,but the attack on the Catholic church in the Southern state of Oyo shows that terrorism is spreading South. At the same time,the kidnapping of armed bandits was a blowout,the railway passenger train hijacking case shocked the whole world. In 2022,many parts of Nigeria experienced the worst floods in nearly 10 years. The Buhari government’s hasty new design of naira banknote policy has caused a severe cash shortage,causing much inconvenience to economic development and people’s lives,and leading to street protests and chaos in many places as well. Before the 2023 general elections,various security issues and risks rose together. The 2023 presidential election was the most competitive since 1999. From the development trend,the new government will face severe challenges in the future. The new government faces how to ease the ethnic and religious conflicts further intensified by the election and maintain the unity of the country;and how to improve the security situation and deal with high inflation,high unemployment and multidimensional poverty.

作者简介
李文刚:李文刚,中国社会科学院西亚非洲研究所民族宗教研究室主任、副研究员,主要研究领域为尼日利亚国别研究和非洲伊斯兰教研究。