2021年初拜登入主白宫后,美国的中东政策普遍被认为会出现较大变动,意味着特朗普政府四年执政期间造成的混乱和不确定有可能告一段落,美国的中东政策将回归理性和多边主义,一个更稳健、更符合传统外交理念的决策团队有可能会为近年来进退失据的美国中东政策带来某些期许。但是在拜登入主白宫一年后,他的中东政策在相当大程度上可以被认为并未偏离特朗普的即有框架和政策理念。相比以往各届政府,拜登团队似乎对中东事务少了很多热情,除了伊核问题和阿富汗问题之外,在其他中东事务上更多是勉强应付而非积极进取。即使是在伊核问题这个关键议题上,拜登团队既不如奥巴马政府那样以多边主义的方式积极寻求合作,也不像特朗普政府那样以咄咄逼人的单边主义方式来遏制伊朗的核发展。在阿富汗撤军问题上,拜登团队基本上是在落实完成奥巴马和特朗普两任政府既定的政策路线和目标,却并未像前两任政府那样试图在撤军后为维护当地稳定以及美国的影响力而做出太多努力。总之,拜登政府第一年的中东政策给人的感觉是既无心,又无力,有一种“随波逐流”之感。这固然反映了美国在中东地区总体收缩的战略走势不可逆转,但同时也与拜登政府团队的自身特点和政策导向不无关系。
Since Biden moved into the White House at the beginning of 2021,U.S.Middle East policy is generally considered to have undergone a major change,which means that the chaos and uncertainty created during the four years of the Trump administration are likely to come to an end,that U.S.Middle East policy will return to rationality and multilateralism,and that a more robust policy-making team that is more in line with traditional diplomatic concepts is likely to bring some promise to the U.S.Middle East policy that has lost ground in recent years. But one year after Biden entered the White House,his Middle East policy can be seen as largely unchanged from Trump’s framework and policy philosophy. Compared with previous administrations,the Biden team seems to be less enthusiastic about Middle East affairs,except for the Iranian nuclear issue and Afghanistan,and appears to be more reluctant than aggressive in other Middle East affairs. Even on the key Iranian nuclear issue,the Biden team is neither as aggressive as the Obama administration in demanding cooperation in a multilateralist manner,nor as aggressive as the Trump administration in its unilateralist approach to contain Iran’s nuclear development. When it comes to the Afghan withdrawal,the Biden team is essentially following through on completing the established policy lines and goals of both the Obama and Trump administrations without trying to do as much as the previous two administrations to maintain local stability as well as U.S.influence after the withdrawal. In short,the Biden administration’s Middle East policy in its first year gives the impression of being unmotivated and ineffective,with a sense of “going with the flow”. While this situation reflects the irreversibility of the overall strategic trend of U.S.contraction in the Middle East,it is also related to the Biden administration’s own characteristics and policy orientation.
Keywords: | Middle EastU.S.AfghanistanIranBiden |