阿尔及利亚建国以来,其与摩洛哥的关系起起落落,2021年8月最终断交。引发双边关系波动的因素有很多,但地缘政治因素最为突出。阿尔及利亚和摩洛哥均是大国地缘竞争与博弈的关注点,同时两国“地缘重量”差别较小,双方保持脆弱与微妙的地缘平衡态势。一旦一方内部出现重大变动,这些变动可能影响对方发展战略,或者另一方被有野心“大国”诱导,做出影响平衡的出格举动,必然会导致另一方采取措施追求维持原先的状态。阿摩关系要想摆脱地缘竞争“魔咒”,应该走合作道路,否则两国关系还会在历史惯性下循环往复。
Since the founding of Algeria,and its relationship with Morocco had seen ups and downs before it finally broke off in August 2021. There were many factors that had triggered the fluctuations in their bilateral relation,but geopolitical factors were the most prominent. Algeria and Morocco are both the focus of major powers’ geopolitical competition and game. Since the difference in “geographical weight” between the two countries is small,the two sides maintain nothing but a fragile and delicate geopolitical balance. Once there are major changes within one party,when the changes may affect the development strategy of the other party,or one is induced by an ambitious “big power” to make extraordinary moves that affect the balance,the other party will inevitably take measures to maintain the original state. In order to get rid of the “curse” of geopolitical competition,the two countries should take the road of cooperation;otherwise,the relationship between the two countries will go back and forth out of the historical inertia.