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“什叶派新月地带”与伊朗的地区政策(2022)

文章摘要

“什叶派新月地带”是一个口号式的概念,反映了中东地区格局变化与伊朗崛起所带来的多重影响,但却漠视了什叶派内部关系和人口分布的基本事实。伊朗选择在伊拉克、叙利亚和黎巴嫩等国扩大影响力,既是充分利用什叶派跨国网络的主观理性选择,也是受地缘环境和综合国力等客观因素限制的结果。伊朗利用什叶派民兵武装构建代理人网络的地区政策为本国带来了一定的好处,但其负面影响也开始显现。受伊拉克动荡和叙利亚内战的影响,“什叶派新月地带”的地区影响力有下降趋势。伊朗与“什叶派新月地带”其他国家间的关系也存在变数。

Abstract

The “Shiite Crescent” is a slogan-like concept that reflects the multiple implications of the changing regional landscape in the Middle East and the rise of Iran,but it has ignored the basic facts of intra-Shiite relations and population distribution. Iran’s choice to expand its influence in countries such as Iraq,Syria and Lebanon is both a subjective and rational choice to make full use of Shia transnational networks and the result of objective factors such as geopolitical circumstances and comprehensive national power. Iran’s regional policy of using Shiite militias and building a proxy network has brought some gains for the country,but its negative impact has also begun to emerge. As a result of the unrest in Iraq and the civil war in Syria,the influence of the “Shiite Crescent” in the region has been declining. The relationship between Iran and other countries in the “Shiite Crescent” is also plagued with uncertainty.

作者简介
王光远:王光远,北京语言大学中东学院副教授,研究方向为海湾地区国际关系与国际政治。