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调整与缓和:2021年中东阵营化新趋势

文章摘要

当前中东阵营化对抗趋势减弱,总体呈放缓趋稳态势。拜登政府调整中东战略,减少对中东的军事资源投入,避免在地区安全问题上过度承诺,转而回归多边主义基本面,在重返伊核协议问题上加大外交资源投入,使沙特、阿联酋等地区国家承担共同维护地区安全秩序的责任。沙特、阿联酋等地区国家,转变对阵营对抗的态度,在寻求共同安全和经济利益基础上,弥合海合会内部分歧,扩大与伊朗对话,谋求在也门战场实现停火,与叙利亚修复外交关系。同时,非国家行为体在阵营对抗中影响越来越大,表现为军事对抗的不对称性增加和数字技术领域的战略竞争优势。中东地区阵营对抗烈度减弱,并不代表阵营的消失,在中东地区结构性矛盾全面解决前,再次爆发冲突的风险仍然存在。

Abstract

Camp confrontation in the Middle East is weakening,and the overall trend is slowing down and stabilizing. The Biden administration has adjusted its Middle East strategy,by reducing the investment of military resources in the Middle East and avoiding excessive commitment in regional security issues,and instead returning to multilateralism to help turn the fundamentals,and increasing the investment of diplomatic resources on the issue of returning to the Iranian nuclear deal,so that Saudi Arabia,the UAE and other regional countries can assume the responsibility of jointly maintaining the regional security order. Saudi Arabia,the UAE and other regional countries have shifted their attitudes toward camp confrontation,and on the basis of seeking common security and economic interests,are bridging the differences within the GCC,expanding dialogue with Iran,seeking to achieve a ceasefire in the battlefield of Yemen,and repairing diplomatic relations with Syria. At the same time,non-state actors are increasingly influential in camp confrontation,manifesting themselves in the increased asymmetry of military confrontation and strategic competitive advantages in the field of digital technology. The weakening intensity of the camp confrontation in the Middle East does not mean the disappearance of the camps,and the risk of renewed conflict will remain before the structural contradictions in the Middle East are fully resolved.

作者简介
邵玉琢:邵玉琢,博士,北京语言大学国别和区域研究院助理研究员,研究方向为区域国别学方法论、阿拉伯国别问题、阿曼历史文化。