对2021年哈萨克斯坦面临的风险进行评估，主要可从以下三个方面进行考量：地缘政治因素、地区因素和国内因素。地缘政治因素主要包括：新冠肺炎疫情及其引发的生物威胁论；美国从阿富汗撤军；“蓝点网络”计划；以美国为首的西方国家与俄罗斯的紧张关系加剧；欧盟国家对哈萨克斯坦的制裁政策；美国对俄罗斯的制裁政策。地区因素主要包括：跨界威胁对中亚国家的安全造成一定的影响；中亚国家与区域安全机构的合作；欧亚经济联盟主席国；中亚国家与美国的合作；突厥语国家组织；中亚国家政治发展模式。国内因素主要包括：精英阶层和各种势力集团的对抗加剧；议会选举；“青年人口膨胀”；不受控制的国内人口迁移；社交网络上的极端主义宣传；民众的宗教情绪见涨；极端主义和恐怖主义性质的犯罪活动有所增加。
The risk for Kazakhstan in 2021 can be assessed in three mainaspects，namely geopolitical，regional and domestic factors. The geopolitical factors include：COVID-19 andthe biological threat theory that it generated；the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan；the Blue Dot Network plan；the increased tensions between the US and the West and Russia；the sanctions policy of the EU countries against Kazakhstan；and the US sanctions policyagainst Russia. Regional factors mainly include：the certain impact of cross-border threatson the security of Central Asian countries；the cooperation of Central Asian countries withregional security institutions；the presidency of the Eurasian Economic Union；thecooperation of Central Asian countries with the United States；the Organization of TurkicStates；and the political development patterns of Central Asian countries. Domestic factorsinclude：the increased confrontation between elites and various power groups；theparliamentary elections；the “youth population expansion”；the uncontrolled internalpopulation movements；the extremist propaganda on social networks；the rising religioussentiment among the population；and the increase in crimes of an extremist and terroristnature.
| Keywords： | GeopoliticalKazakhstanCountry Risk |
