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新冠疫情冲击对欧盟经济与移民政策的影响评估

文章摘要

当前,伴随新冠疫情的持续蔓延,国际形势错综复杂、高频动荡,欧盟在公共卫生治理、宏观经济与移民政策等领域迎来深刻挑战与变革。宏观经济层面,欧盟经济经历严重冲击后短暂反弹,再次面临经济恢复动力不足、经济增速放缓、国内失业率大幅上升、出口增长乏力、社会不平等加剧等问题。叠加乌克兰危机的影响,欧盟经济复苏道阻且长。公共卫生治理层面,欧盟国家积极开展疫苗研发、接种工作和跨国防疫合作,但仍需在中长期内应对疫情反复的风险。移民治理层面,囿于疫情下人员跨境流通受阻,流入欧盟的国际移民数量骤减,引发社会劳动力短缺问题再次凸显。

Abstract

At present,along with the continuing spread of COVID-19,the international situation is complicated and high-frequency turbulence,the EU ushers in profound challenges and changes in the areas of public health governance,macroeconomics and migration policy. At the macroeconomic level,the EU economy has rebounded briefly after a serious shock,and is once again facing problems such as insufficient economic recovery momentum,slowing economic growth,a sharp rise in domestic unemployment,weak export growth and rising social inequality. Combined with the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict,the EU’s economic recovery will take a long time. At the level of public health governance,EU countries are actively engaged in vaccine research and development,vaccination and cross-border cooperation on epidemic prevention,but still need to deal with the risk of recurrent epidemics in the medium to long term. At the migration governance level,the number of international migrants to the EU has plummeted due to the disruption of cross-border movement of people under the epidemic,which has led to the re-emergence of labor shortage in society.

作者简介
程永林:程永林,广东外语外贸大学广东国际战略研究院教授,研究方向为国际金融、宏观经济政策、移民政策的经济效应。
陈宇柠:陈宇柠,广东外语外贸大学广东国际战略研究院硕士研究生。
张如月:张如月(通讯作者),广东外语外贸大学广东国际战略研究院硕士研究生。