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波兰边境移民危机透析:背景、现状及其影响

文章摘要

2021年8月以来,来自叙利亚、阿富汗、伊拉克和也门等战乱不断国家的数千难民在白俄罗斯宽松的签证程序下,取道明斯克,希冀以此为跳板进入到欧盟境内。难民在波白边界的集结引发了波兰和其他欧盟国家的强烈批评,并将此次危机定性为一次由“白俄罗斯策动、得到俄罗斯支持”的“混合战争”。加之这一难民中的大多数都是穆斯林,因而遭到了波兰右翼民族主义政府的强硬抵制。在多方利益交汇的中东欧地区,波兰与白俄罗斯之间发生的边境移民危机显然不只是一场孤立的人道主义灾难,也是一场地缘政治危机。这场危机不仅导致波兰与白俄罗斯的关系加速恶化,也加剧了西方与俄罗斯之间的敌意程度。然而,这些非欧洲难民的“闯关”威胁,也为波兰平衡欧盟在法治争端问题上对其施加的压力创造了一个机会。

Abstract

Since August 2021,thousands of refugees from war-torn countries such as Syria,Afghanistan,Iraq and Yemen have been travelling through Minsk under Belarus’ liberal visa procedures,hoping to use it as a springboard to enter the European Union. The gathering of refugees at the Polish-Belarusian border has sparked strong criticism in Poland and other EU countries. These countries have characterized the crisis as a “hybrid war” instigated by Belarus and supported by Russia. The fact that most of the refugees are Muslim has led to strong resistance from Poland’s right-wing nationalist government. The border migration crisis between Poland and Belarus is clearly not just an isolated humanitarian catastrophe,but also a geopolitical crisis in a region where multiple interests converge in Central and Eastern Europe. While the crisis has led to an accelerated deterioration in relations between Poland and Belarus,it has also increased the level of animosity between the West and Russia. However,the threat of “border crossing” by these non-European refugees also creates an opportunity for Poland to balance the pressure exerted by the EU over the rule of law dispute.

作者简介
王弘毅:王弘毅,博士,北京外国语大学欧洲语言文化学院、教育部国别和区域研究培育基地北京外国语大学中东欧研究中心讲师,主要研究方向为中东欧政治与外交。
卢月新:卢月新,华沙大学政治科学与国际关系学院硕士生。