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热词推荐: 能源基础设施

印度-东盟伙伴关系:成就、特点与限度

文章摘要

2022年是印度与东盟建立对话关系30周年,回首过往,印度与东盟的合作经历了从经济到安全、从双边到多边、从非正式对话机制到正式约束性机制的复合演进与升级,无论在区域、次区域还是国家层面都取得了丰硕成果。然而长期以来,印度与东盟对自身的国际定位以及彼此的战略认知不协调、行动能力与预期目标不匹配,关系互动呈现明显不对称性。且随着世界地缘政治和经济重心向印太转移,地区形势发生复杂变化,印度与东盟的间隙进一步扩大。印度认为在“印太”概念下,其国际地位和战略重要性显著提升,应主动利用这一历史机遇,谋求冒险性战略的“高收益”。而东盟则担心大国竞争加剧,将削弱自身在区域合作机制中的“中心地位”,破坏成员团结,使其面临被抛弃、被离心的风险。在此背景下,尽管印度与东盟都有意加强对话合作、深化伙伴关系,但由于二者核心利益和重大关切趋异、在多边合作中的互动方向不一致,未来印度-东盟战略伙伴关系发展可能遭遇多重挑战。

Abstract

The year 2022 marks the 30th anniversary of dialogue relations between India and ASEAN. The bilateral cooperation has been updated all-round and achieved productive results. However,due to the different international status and paradoxical strategic perceptions of each other,for a long time,the relationship between India and ASEAN has experienced huge “capability-expectation” gap and exhibited significant asymmetries. With the shift of the world’s geopolitical and economic center to the Indo-Pacific,the regional situation has become more complex. India believes that its international status has been enhanced under the Indo-Pacific concept,and it should take advantage of this great opportunity to seek strategic “high gains”. ASEAN,however,fears that the competition among major powers will weaken its “centrality” in regional cooperation and risk being centrifuged and abandoned. Therefore,while both sides are interested in strengthening cooperation,the future development of India-ASEAN strategic partnership faces multiple challenges.

作者简介
李致斐:李致斐,云南财经大学印度洋地区研究中心讲师。