一个国家或区域实现碳达峰的时间,受其资源禀赋及社会经济发展阶段的约束。把中国地域划分为东部、中部、东北、西南及西北五大区域进行研究,有利于细化各区域的碳达峰情景,进而明确各自的低碳发展路径及区域合作重点方向。由于各区域在经济、社会及自然条件等方面的差异性,各区域在碳排放达峰的时间方面也表现出较大的差异性。在政策情景下,东部、中部和西南可以在2025年左右达峰,东北在2030年左右达峰,西北在2035年左右达峰;在强化减排情景下,东部、中部和西南可以在2020年左右达峰,东北在2025年左右达峰,西北在2030年左右达峰;在2℃情景下,随着减排力度的进一步加大,各区域虽然达峰时间没有变化,但达峰时的碳排放进一步下降。
The time for a country or region to achieve carbon peak is constrained by its resource endowment and the stage of social and economic development. The report divide China into five regions:the East,the middle,the northeast,the southwest and the northwest is conducive to refine the carbon peak scenario of each region,and then clarify their own low-carbon development path and the key direction of regional cooperation. Due to the differences in economic,social and natural conditions among regions,there are also great differences in the peak time of carbon emissions among regions. Under the policy scenario,the East,middle and southwest can reach the peak around 2025,the northeast can reach the peak around 2030,and the Northwest can reach the peak around 2035. Under the enhanced emission reduction scenario,the East,central and southwest can reach the peak around 2020,the northeast can reach the peak around 2025,and the Northwest can reach the peak around 2030. In the 2℃ scenario,with the further increase of emission reduction,although the peak time of each region has not changed,the carbon emission at the peak has further decreased.