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苏丹:军文争斗掣肘内政外交

文章摘要

2019年苏丹巴希尔政权垮台后,军方与文官组成执政联盟,共同主导苏丹的政治过渡进程。2021年10月25日,苏丹军方发动政变,解散文官领导的内阁,军文执政联盟解体。“10·25政变”是军方与文官两大势力争夺过渡进程主导权的结果,对苏丹过渡阶段的内政和外交均产生了重大影响。政变打破了军文执政联盟原本脆弱的权力平衡,各方在权力再分配问题上严重对立,政治局势呈现出“碎片化”和“僵持化”特征,民主过渡出现不确定性。外交方面,政变导致苏丹与美国关系陷入停滞状态,苏丹的“向西”外交受阻。与此同时,苏丹外交的军方主导色彩渐浓,与俄罗斯、沙特、阿联酋等“传统盟友”的关系稳步推进。联合国、非盟和伊加特是苏丹当前政治危机的主要调解方,且已形成协调一致的“三方调解机制”。然而,由于苏丹各方的立场和诉求各异,“三方机制”未发挥实际作用。

Abstract

After the fall of al-Bashir’s regime in 2019,a coalition of the military and civilian officials dominated Sudan’s political transition. On October 25,2021,the Sudanese military staged a coup to dissolve the civilian-led cabinet,marking the dissolution of the military-civilian ruling coalition. The October 25 Coup was the result of the competition between the military and the civilian for the dominance of the transition process,which had a great impact on Sudan’s politics and diplomacy during the transition period. In terms of internal affairs,the coup has broken the fragile power balance of the military-civilian ruling coalition,and the two parties have seriously opposed each other on the issue of power resharing. The political situation has afterwards shown the characteristics of fragmentation and stalemate,and the democratic transition process in Sudan has emerged a lot of uncertainty. Diplomatically,the coup brought the process of normalizing relations between Sudan and the USA to a standstill,which in turn hampered the westward shift of Sudan’s diplomacy. At the same time,the military tendency of Sudan’s diplomacy gradually deepened after the coup,the junta’s relations with traditional allies such as Russia,Saudi Arabia,and the United Arab Emirates have remained stable after the October 25 Coup. The United Nations,the AU and IGAD are the main mediators in the current political crisis in Sudan and they have formed a coordinated Tripartite Mediation Mechanism. However,the Tripartite Mechanism has not yet played a practical role due to the different objectives and appeals of the Sudan’s related parties.

作者简介
姜恒昆:姜恒昆,浙江师范大学非洲研究院副研究员,主要研究领域为非洲政治发展、苏丹和南苏丹国别研究。