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China’s Way to an “Ecological Civilization”

文章摘要

“…green waters and clear mountains…are golden and silver mountains and waters”——Xi Jinping on EC Ecological Civilization.The astonishing rise of China in the world affairs is clearly the leading global issue of our times. It shifted the center of gravity of the world’s economy towards the Northeast of Asia. A vast zone where China is by far the largest economy as well as the paramount political and military force. A region very much populated and with strong economies -besides china: Japan and South Korea- but devoid of critical natural resources and fossil energy. In any case the global balance of power now has to acknowledge the might and influence of china and its region all over the world.In spite of its strength and dynamism, so far it has been a remarkable peaceful ascent. For sure, there are tensions, conflicts and contradictions; but no major confrontation has taken place for decades because the Chinese new world presence and strength. It has triggered an intense competition with the USA in trade matters, but still it has been managed through talks and negotiation. For instance, the new ambitious Chinese endeavor of the Belt and Road (Silk) Initiative, known for its acronym BRI entails a major geopolitical reconfiguration of Eurasia, with an enormous potential for world development. But so far it has received a very enthusiastic reception from many countries eager to participate in it instead of opposing it; even in faraway places like South America. Almost no region of the world has been left untouched by the Chinese ascent. Latin America, especially South America, through the massive exports of commodities has change its economic landscape; in Africa something similar has occurred and Chinese investment in infrastructure there has been very transformative and remarkable.So far then, it’s quite significant the success of the “Peaceful Ascent” doctrine of China. Nevertheless, this dramatic change has had major internal impacts on China and has created some serious dilemmas. Some of them are only internal in scope and impact, like the demographic, urban and internal migration tensions, or the pollution of air, soil and water bodies. But there are other dilemmas that have great implications not only for China, but for the world as a whole. This is because the sheer size of China´s population and economy. Paramount among these “global dilemmas” are the issues of Climate Change (global warming) and - very much related- the unsustainability of the present pattern of production and consumption of the global economy. There will be not a solution to either of these dilemmas without China´s full participation.In this regard, the Chinese proposed concept of “Ecological Civilization” has a remarkable global importance. There will not be such an ecological civilization (EC) if it is not global. No matter how big or powerful a county is, the very nature of these events requires a global, comprehensive approach and commitment. This is the reason why in this short “paper statement”. China has now the strength to lead these efforts globally in cooperation with many other countries and international -multilateral- organizations. Indeed, if the rise of China is the most profound economic and political phenomenon of our times; the other, not less dramatic is, by far, the dramatic warming of the world due to climate change. This can only be solved if the whole world works to a low or a no carbon economy: this would be the gist of a new, world “ecological civilization”.Let us briefly discuss the Chinese concept of this Ecological Civilization (EC). The concept was first put forward by former President Hu Jintao in 2007 (shengtai wenming 生态文明).And since then it has attracted an enormous amount of academic and political interest. By the year 2012 the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) elevated it as a paramount objective. Since 2013 President Xi Jinping took it in earnest and was considered a core element of his view of a “Socialism with Chinese Characteristic for a New Era”. Therefore, it was no surprise that in 2018 it was also ratified in the Constitution of the PRC. Somewhat it was considered the logical evolutionary step after the agricultural and industrial civilizations. That is: now it’s the time to build a “Socialist Ecological Civilization Construction with Chinese Characteristics”. Of course, this is a strict Chinese social construct, but bodes very well for a new global order away from carbon, fossil fuels and a wasteful consumption economy. Thus, EC provides a new vision of development that anticipates a new global energy and ecological transition.The present global environmental picture remains quite bleak. The pollution and depletion of resources, the loss of biodiversity and the widespread of species extinctions grow unchecked. Emissions of GHG are rising unabated without firm commitments from most countries. A renewed role of China, framed in the EC context, looks more urgent than ever given that the Trump administration is pulling out the United States of climate and environmental governance.With regards of Climate Change, we must bear in mind that fresh data keeps getting more and more negative as reported by the IPCC and other reliable academic and scientific sourcesJim Duggan Books, New York.">[1]. Indeed, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the United Nations body for assessing the science related to climate change.[2] and the related UN Climate Action Summit 2019 have produced very worrying set of data and models with regards to the warming and the emissions threshold not to cross if we really want to avoid unmanageable consequences.In fact, global emissions are reaching record levels and with no clear signs of peaking. The last four years were are by far the hottest on record, and winter temperatures in the Arctic have risen by 3°C since 1990. As we can see from multiple sources, sea levels are rising, coral reefs are dying, and we are seeing a life-threatening impact of climate change on health, through air pollution and very severe heat waves. Risks to food security are already present in several countries[3]. So, the impacts of climate change are being felt everywhere and are having very real consequences on people’s lives. Climate change is disrupting national economies, costing us dearly today and will cost even more tomorrow. But there is a growing recognition that affordable, scalable solutions are available now that will enable us all to leapfrog to cleaner, more resilient economies.The ambitious, yet pragmatic Paris Agreement (2015) is a very useful roadmap to overcome the worst of climate change for the next decades. There is still some time left - perhaps ten to twelve years- to reduce global average temperatures to no more than the now accepted range of 1.5o - 2.0o above preindustrial levels. But the Paris Agreement will be meaningless without leadership and decisive action.China alone is responsible for an astounding 26.8% of the world’s total carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions (and combined with the U.S. an impressive 43%). Being the most populous country and a heavy user of coal, its renewed role in the forging of an EC it’s crucially important: If it can meet its huge potential for emission reduction, it will be an epochal change in the efforts to tackle global climate change. So far, we have reasons for optimism. In spite of some recent setbacks, the government has seriously engaged in reducing the “coal intensity” index of its economy. On a parallel way, they are combining this reduction on coal consumption with measures to improve air quality and limit overall GHG emissions the signs have been good so far. But there is not much room nor time left for any relapse. The carbon market, the government’s primary climate-action plan, has to keep growing to reduce carbon consumption: China still consumes as much coal as the rest of the world combined (and accordingly, emits more carbon than any other country).But it has shown resolve to change the wrong environmental course. The success of their “ecocivilization” campaign is for real and in in everyone’s interest. We must salute them, especially when Washington remains inactive and reluctant to assume environmental action.The challenge to China EC will be compounded, at least in the short and medium term by the challenges that poses its deliberate and vigorous policy to induce massive urbanization.For all these reasons we must applaud President Xi’s defense of the Paris Agreement, supported by deeds such as a very ambitious plans to invest in clean energy, green finance and disincentives for carbon. As well as an energetic policy of energy transformation or transition. China should not afford to lose momentum in its efforts to create a low carbon internal economy and induce one abroad.To achieve a gradual transition towards an EC, china is relying on a mix of market forces and command and control standard measures, but let us remind that they are embedded on a vision of a “market socialism”. That is a model unique to Chine or, rather, as it’s being named: a model of “market socialism with Chinese characteristics”. It’s a model that attempt the harnessing the market forces with a strong state regulation and social leadership over these market mechanisms. It’s a model with strong centralized political features and dirigisme philosophy, not very different form the prior Korean, Japanese or even French models of development. It’s worth to bear in mind that this Chinese “model” has produced the most rapid era of economic growth and employment creation the world has seen in at least a century[4]. Over a period of a little more than 30 years it has lifted out of poverty hundreds of millions of people and created a vast middle class. Something never seen before. Now the big challenge is to achieve a second transition to a cleaner, leaner and sustainable economy. It will largely depends on how the state will be able to harness the market forces toward environmental precisely defined goals. In other words, how much a free role to the market and how mucho to the state. And how but of them interact with the largest corpus of society as a whole.In this regard, we should not forget the idea of the “Chinese dream”, associated with Xi Jinping, the “Chinese Dream” is about Chinese prosperity, collective effort, socialism, and national glory. Xi Jinping refers to the dream as a form of national rejuvenation.The construction of the ecological civilization is the power in the present and the advantages in the future. To move towards a new era of ecological civilization and to build a beautiful China are an important part of realizing the Chinese Dream of the great revival of the Chinese nation.[5]Indeed, the enormous economic -and material- expansion of china’s economy has had a very big environmental impact. China has worked very hard to overcome this situation. For one, the air pollution problem is very serious in most Chinese cities, tis pollution extends also to soil and many water bodies, especially rivers. This, besides degrading many ecosystems, poses serious health risks and diminishes the overall quality of life of the population. But besides, this, as we already mentioned, China’s emissions of Carbon Dioxide (CO2) and other Greenhouse Gases (GHG), the main cause of global warming, are already the largest of the world.Thus, the ambitious quest for an Ecological Civilization (EC) which encompasses more than a mere sustainable economic development: it has to do with the moral fabric of society and includes changes in the way we produce, but also in the manner that we consume. Let us not forget that China is a very large and unique civilization in itself. Indeed, it is the longest civilization continuum that we have in the world. China is much more than a conventional “nation state” (or country). Its four millennial civilization makes China particularly endowed and apt for tackling this civilizational challenges. China has to transcend the pattern of production and wasting consumption that has defined the western nations and even Japan or South Korea. Particularly, it has also to implement a dramatic shift in the energy mix and consumption patterns. This is a must if China wants to truly achieve an EC. So, growth has to be redirected and become more sustainable, less energy and materials dependent.As the 21st century goes ahead, the impact of climate change will be felt ever more strongly. If we truly want to avoid an environmental catastrophe it is imperative to deviate from the unsustainable path GHG emissions and other threats to the atmosphere, the earth’s biomes and biodiversity. It’s a daunting task that belongs to all countries. But China, not only for her sheer size and strength but for its commitment to the EC, should play a leading role. We need not only a new way to produce, but also a “circular economy” which minimize wastes and consume in a different way, globally. Being china the main trading and manufacturing county in the world, it’s in a very advantageous position to conduct this process. A major decoupling form economic growth and energy consumption as well as the intensity of materials used in producing goods should be a good starting point.China is fighting its many environmental problems and challenges head on and with great resolve. Pollution of air, soil and water is particularly worrisome. Its main cities are suffering an alarming level of air pollution. The government has announces a “war to pollution” and a wide battery of environmental- enhancing measures. Among them: increasing the energy efficiency of the economy, using less coal and cleaner technologies. Reusing and recycling of wastes throughout the economy. On the energy transition front, China is taking the leadership on clean energies, mainly wind (Eolic) and solar. To achieve this it will take time, financial resources and a steady stream of innovations. But the course is well set already. There will be a more rigorous physical planning and ordinances in order to achieve a more “beautiful China”. All this will be achieved through a mix of market bases mechanisms -incentives, disincentives- as well as “command and control” measures. There will be a very strict systems of water saving and conserving schemes, energy and other key resources. They would draw a “Red Line” of environmental protection and, to achieve real sustainability staying within the carting capacity of the different regions and ecosystems.In general, the recent environmental performance of china has clearly improved with some sectors and regions legging behind. But carbon emissions are still growing albeit more slowly in recent years. The energy mix reflect this: hydro electrical plants share in the energy mix are growing fast as well as other renewable and “clean” energy sources. China plans to increase the share of renewables in the energy matrix form the present around 12 % to more than 20% by the early 2020s. It has already the world’s largest installed capacity in wind and solar energy and both are growing fast. Besides, energy intensity or energy efficiency (the diminishing of energy input per unit of product) has been improving steadily.After all, a civilization change, beyond protecting the material-ecological basis of the economy must include a transformation in the way we produce and consume, as well as a sustainable use of the territories and ecosystems. In other words to dramatically reduce the “Ecological footprint” of china[6] which is the largest in the world on a total basis (in per capita terms is still relatively modest). In accordance to this, China has devised a strategy called “CIRCLE” that includes a virtuous circle that combines compact urban development, less reliance on cars of internal combustion engine (gasoline) reduction; a more “circular” economy and a gradual shift to a low and stable urban “metabolism” (less waste), and less carbon consumption, which still is very high in China, around two thirds of the energy mix.

Abstract

The astonishing rise of China in the world affairs is clearly the leading global issue of our times. It shifted the center of gravity of the world’s economy towards the Northeast of Asia. A vast zone where China is by far the largest economy as well as the paramount political and military force. A region very much populated and with strong economies -besides china: Japan and South Korea- but devoid of critical natural resources and fossil energy. In any case the global balance of power now has to acknowledge the might and influence of china and its region all over the world.
作者简介
Cassio Luiselli Fernández:Researcher, National University of Mexico